This is not outside the realm of possibility. All Microsoft needs is position and incentives. That means Microsoft would need to make a serious generation leap which they have already done to Sony in the past. Then they would need to have the resources available for acquisition of exclusivity. The farther ahead they are the less the financial incentives must be.
All Microsoft needs to do is get to the market with their new machine a significant length of time before Sony, and have said machine sell enough units that the install base is a significant factor. That is how Sony managed to finagle it for themselves. Microsoft would probably need closer to twenty million wild consoles before Sony got of the gate to make that a sure thing.
To do that the hardware must be reliable. The architecture must be sound. The price must be the right price. These are not impossible things whether Microsoft can have all the ingredients in the right mixture would have to be seen. Given the financial status of the PS3 for Sony there is a window that after a few years will probably be closed.
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