1.75m to 2.5m LTD. I originally said 2-3m, but clarified it to 1.75m to 2.5m.
My prediction/projection is based on a few assumptions, and reasonings:
The Xbox sold just under 500k in its lifetime. The secret to the Xbox was that its not that it was poorly recieved, but the software wasn't there. Even with the Xbox, good J-centric games with good pedigree did well. The DOA series did gangbusters (for the userbase), as well as games such as Ninja Gaiden, Halo, and a few others. But generally, MS had no major developer support.
Then came Mistwaker, Namco and Capcom to 360. Things are far different this time around. The tracking numbers are far different: the X360 software is far more consistant (X360 software this year will easily outsell the entire LTD of the Xbox. Xbox had around 1.3m units tracked via this website. Once Oblivions numbers are tallied, numbers should already be in the 900k area.
Because of so much stronger J-dev support, consumers have, and will respond favorably to the X360. Many here, and elsewhere think the Japanese are anti-MS due to it being American. However, I know this isn't the case, as American and European music artists regularly top their charts, and the largest movies there are LOTR, Harry Potter, and Pirates of the Carribean (sound familiar?).
But the issue is the games don't cater to the fanbase. Nevertheless, with Mistwaker onboard with major titles that have re-vitalized the Japanese market (selling 100k systems in Dec is just ungodly compared to the Xbox and 360's track record upto that point), Dead Rising is selling well, and the other 10+ good J-games on slate will do well.
I honestly feel that games like DMC4, RE5, Gundam Mousou, Mousou Orochi, Eternal Sonata, Lost Odyssey, Oblivion, and Ace Combat 6 launching over the next few months is going to show that the X360 can easily have a small, but dedicated and great fanbase there. X360 software has consistantly going head-to-head with the PS3 software, and has done very well, despite having 40% of the systems (for comparison, the PS3 has maybe sold 250k software titles more this year thus far).
So I think the X360's lifespan will look like this:
2005 - ~90k units (abysmal)
2006 - 196k (horrid, but improving)
2007 - 375k (major improvement, major EOY momentum with LO out)
2008 - 475k (another improvement due to DMC, and others)
2009 - 550k (X360s best year due to more and more J-dev support)
2010 - 450k (support wanes, since new Xbox is slated to launch soon)
2011 - 150k (new box launches, unit starts slowing down w/ no new games)
2012 - 50k (dead)
2013 - 20k (last remaining units are finally cleared out)
This projection, to me, seems feasable. 2007 is certainly on track to reach those numbers (remember, X360 last year sold 50% of it's sales in just 1 month. The X360 still has 5mo and 2wk left, and has done 125k, more than the X360 did all year minus the last 4 weeks in Dec, due to BD). Likewise, the 550k top-end is very reasonable.
This leaves the 360 with a grand total of 2,336,000 units. It could be more or less, but i feel this is reasonable. If MS had 2m units there, it'd certainly be enough of a reason for Japanese devs to work on the system and future itenerations of the X360, as MS would have enough units to get a good game ~250k units there, and a very good selling X360 in US and Europe.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
