| bbsin said: 25% is not optimistic at all, I'd imagine Sony would have 30%. Anyways, I'm not getting your math here. You're saying that: 200b - 20b = 180 * .25 = 45billion = not enough to brake even on the PS3? If things go good for BluRay, many studios predict 30billion dollars of revenue by 2010. A good chunk of those movie sales will come from Sony/Columbia pictures. And SCEI would be getting money thier own way by reducing hardware costs and sales royalties. That would equate to around 6-7 billion dollars to Sony (if I went by your formula) without adding anything but disk sales.
|
No, your math is screwed ...
$200 Billion = Gross Revenue
$20 Billion = Licencing Revenue
$5 Billion = Sony's cut of licencing revenue
Now ... The 10% is amazingly optimistic because most formats (in particular new formats) have very large margins at retail to encourage stores to stock the discs (we're talking in the 100% mark up range), and companies eventually can find a way to sell movies and make a profit at a very low price ($5).
The 25% take home off of licencing fees is amazingly optimistic because as a licencee you gain the rights to use all of the technologies that are licenced by the Blu-Ray consortium to make the Blu-Ray format. If you look at the Blu-Ray specifications there are hundreds of patents that are owned by various companies who each get a cut of the Blu-Ray licencing fee. On top of that there are dozens of companies who are also heavily involved with promoting the Blu-Ray format who are (likely) going to get a cut of the fees.
