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There is a couple of points Id like to add and that is:
1) I really think you have to look at all the games the 360 has to offer not just whats coming out when considering the new price point. There are many people out there that want to play games like call of duty 4 Bioshock etc but cannot go out and puy the money for a hd console this price point will alllow them to do just that.
2) People keep going on and on about the 199 being the "gimped" machine and because of that people wont buy it. Again it brings the machine down to the range people can afford and gimped or not you can still play all the games you have read or heared about. Remember the hard drive really is only needed for online stuff and we know there are millions and millions of 360 owners who dont touch the online gaming.
3) MS has annonced already for EU the starter bundle where you get 60gig hard drive 3months xbox live and a head set. When MS brings that here to the NA and at the rumoured price point(100) it will bascily allow arcade owners to upgrade to pro without any extra cost but can be done in steps instead of one lump cost.
4) Last point we have to remember is that the other skus are coming down in price to this will also boost sales.