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CAL4M1TY said:

The most obvious spanner to throw into my works is of course the fact that you can just download and play through maps created by users, which'll definitely attract more people to the game, but doesn't that completely cut off half the game from these casual gamers? Why would they invest in a PS3 for one game when the Wii offers the pickup and play style that they've gotten used to? The Wii also offers boom blox, another much more simpler physics based game.

Discuss.

Yeah, the vast majority will just play the user-created levels, not create them (or at least they won't spend the time to create good levels).  No, LBP doesn't somehow "beat the Wii" or whatever.  But LBP could in fact turn out to be a modern-day side-scrolling platforming monster.  Boom Blox isn't a platformer giving you control of humanoid characters, like Mario and LBP, and the latter seem to have more chance to catch on huge (but see Tetris, whose success Boom Blox hasn't repeated).

I think LBP may be a colossal hit.  I'd be surprised if it sells under 3 million copies, and I wouldn't be surprised if it sells over 6-8 million, lifetime.  However, as you said, the most important thing is whether it is a fun game.  The websites who've played it (thinking of IGN especially) have had really positive words on that subject.