I love BR (it was my main motivator for buying my PS3 as soon as I did) but I think the article writer is a little too optimistic for my sake. I think it will be a long long time (if ever) BR surpasses DVD as the format of choice. People throw around all kinds of statistics of HDTV adoption but the fact of the matter is that a huge majority of people out there just don't care about the increase of picture/sound quality over DVD. It's different in our context because of our fascination with technology and the like but how can many sit here and say that their parents/grandparents are itching to go out and watch the latest summer blockbusters in full 1080p w/ lossless audio?
The reason DVD has taken off like it has in the recent years is because of prices. $30 players and $5 movies will continue to support the huge numbers of DVD sales every year. I see it being well past the OP's target date before Blu ray prices come even close to that. Things like VOD will never replace BR IMO but it will just be another avenue for people to access content (both SD and HD) that will take money away from optical media.
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