HappySqurriel said:
First off, Sega's reaction in the market and their competitions reaction to Sega was a little different than what we would see today ... Sega released the Sega CD, followed by the Sega 32x, and then did a "Surprise" release of the Sega Saturn at $500 with no games, so its not that surprising that the 12 month lead it had over the Playstation didn't lead to its dominance; after all this failed hardware, the Saturn's software not being carried by major US retailers, and major third party publishers (EA) refusal to produce any games for the Dreamcast even die-hard Sega fans wouldn't buy the system.
My argument wasn't that releasing a console first leads to its dominance (by the way), it was that none of the console manufacturers would wait 2 years to release a console to compete with a new console that actually can threaten their position within the market; in particular if their console has already had an acceptably long life (5 or 6 years). |
I'm well aware of Sega's disastrous and unfortunate history post SegaCD. Video game history is something I consider fun and I read up on it a lot. No really, a lot.
The 2-year stretch argument also loses some strength when you consider that the SNES launched 2 years after the Genesis, and the N64 launched two years after the Saturn and in both cases, the Nintendo consoles prevailed over their Sega rivals. So, some have waited two years and still had success. When you think about it, both the Xbox and GameCube debuted two years after their respective generation started as well.
Your clarified point, however does carry some sway in the fact that any console that launches, shall we say, "halfway" into a generation is pretty much dooming itself to failure. Look at the Atari 7800 and Jaguar. Late bloomers can find success if properly marketed and supported, however. Look at the ancient ColecoVision which was one of the latest bloomers of the ill-fated second generation. It managed third place at a time when there were about 764 different consoles on the market despite it's late entry. ColecoVision was only topped (as I recall) by Atari VCS (2600) and Mattel Intellivision. Coleco's success came with it's decently powerful hardware and it's large collection of licensed arcade-quality ports, and the fact that one of the top arcade games at the time (Donkey Kong) was exclusive and a pack-in. It also helped that they made an add-on that allowed Atari2600 games to be played on the thing... for which they were promptly sued by Atari.
This is why I find the revelation of Wii-like technology patents from Apple so intriguing. If they are planning a console, it's almost too late for them to release it and still be met with success this generation. Not that I wouldn't welcome another entrant (this is the lightest generation ever hardware-wise), but I think that, unless it was suddenly launched this upcoming holiday season with fanfare and loads of support, it'll be something prepped for the next generation. And if true, Apple may be the company that jumps the gun on the next gen. Apple putting out their own Wii-like console (perhaps with Xbox360 equivalent power) anytime between now and, say, 2011, would likely end with embarassing failure.
