All of this analysis ASSUMES that the Wii will continue selling at 100k+ what the 360 is doing at this point in time. I doubt this will continue year in and year out until the Wii catches up. The Wii has sold 1/2 what the 360 has in NA. Yes, thats great, but I dont see the Wii continuing to close that breakneck gap so quickly. In March-September, I feel at some point the Wii's sales will match 360 sales, then what ends up mattering is Oct-Dec, in which the 360 should win (price drop, Halo 3, GTAIV, ect). John - your numbers for the Wii are very decieving. Yes, the Wii has sold 2.3m units in 4 months, and extrapolating those numbers, would show the Wii to catch up very quickly, but it won't. 50% of those months were holiday months. Numbers are vastly inflated during November and December versus Jan through October. Example: The Wii has sold an average of 520k units per month since November. At 520k units a month, the Wii should catch up rather quickly, as the 360 has averaged 355k units. However, the fact is, the Wii averaged 620k in Nov-December, then 423k in Jan-Feb, to which it will continue selling through March-September or even through October. Because of this, your numbers are wrong and deceitful. Lets assume the Wii sells through at 423k per NPD month (its average), which would mean it sells out through October. It'd sell 4.23m units from Jan-October + the Nov-Dec totals, we get just under 5.5m units sold through it's first year. Far better than the 360 did its first year, but the 360 has sold 5.6m units thus far. So even if the 360 didnt sell a single unit through October, the Wii would not catch up until November this year. Do you see my point? Lets use another formula: The Wii sells the 423k per month from Jan-October each year, then 620k per month in Nov-Dec. That's the 5.5m per year versus the 360's abysmal 3.2m first year year. Using that data, the Wii should catch up around January or Febuary next year. However, the 360 has nearly doubled it's sales this year thus far, and should reach closer to 5.5m this year - equal to the Wii. Therefore, the Wii would never catch up due to the 360s increased sales in November-December. But of course, those numbers are flawed, as the Wii will sell far more than an average of 620k per month in Nov-Dec this year. So again, your numbers are critically flawed John. You can't use just base averages to determine when the Wii will overtake the 360. You have to use retail averages for calendar months instead of the normal averages. The 360 has had 16 months to have a good and bad average, whereas the Wii has only had good averages to compare. You can't use that math to work in reality. If you try, you'll find yourself at the other end of fanboy nightmares and wrong predictions.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
