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I'm afraid you're ignoring the massive games still coming (GeOW2 and Fable2 WILL sell).

Of course those games will sell copies, but will they sell a significant ammount of systems? Gears of War 2 definitely won't because the large majority of the game's demographic already own a 360 and either Gears of War or Halo 3. Fable II will sell a fair ammount but many WRPG fans have already purchased a 360 for Mass Effect.

Honestly, I think Banjo-Kazooie: Nuts & Bolts will sell the most 360s of all the games upcoming this year. It has the legacy of quality as well as the casual appeal to sell millions if marketed correctly. Not only that, it will be the first real platformer on the 360 which gives a new, small demographic of people reason to buy a 360.