As interesting as Home looks, assuming Sony EVER releases the final version, consumers aren't realistically going to buy a console to fool around with the equivalent of Second Life unless they were already set on buying a PS3 for the current library, Blu-Ray, or any of the currently existing reasons why people presumably own one.
It's a very nice addition to the PSN, nothing more.
Most consumers are simply waiting on the right price for the PS3. I've been hearing that from Joe Average consumer from Day 1 when he choked on the $600 price tag.
So no; HD market share is not already determined a mere two years later.
Only when hardware sales plateau, and no subsequent catalysts change sales trends, is anything determined.