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In order to compare the sames from last gen, we need to take into account the fact that alot of households went though more than one PS2, almost everyone i know with one is on atleast their second. This isnt a complaint, lasers dont last forever.

If the wii can manage to do the same and still be so attractive that after 4 - 6 years the consumer is happy to replace the system when its worn out, then the wii will easily match the PS2s sales.

I think a big factor in the wii strategy is the fact that they are targetting not only a wider audience but also pinpointing key areas with things such as the wii balance board, this could end up with the household needing 2 or maybe more Wiis, which ofcourse will be terrific for nintendo. If this happens i can see the wii easily topping 150million. Its worth noting that the wii is gaining alot of popularity in korea, to my (admitedly limited) knowledge no japanese console has ever sold there, and considering the purely untapped market that it could penetrate there, this could give them another 15 - 20% more sales.

As for the other 2, i can see the 360 generally selling ok for the next few years before it is either killed by MS themselves with a new machine or they just "do a sega" :)

The PS3 will do well, but it will never be what the PS2 was, they have already lost the mass market to nintendo, but i can still see them shifting 70 million over the long lifetime it will have. Im sure it will sell atleast 20 million as a BD player alone.