Which Madden 09 will sell the best?

[kamil]

MontanaHatchet said:
I have to disagree with ioi on this one. The 360 and PS3 userbases are a good bit larger than last year, so it seems strange that 360 sales for Madden would stay flat and that PS3 sales for Madden would be under a million AGAIN.

At least two Madden games sold over 4 million on the PS2, so it seems unlikely that Madden 09 couldn't even break the 2.5 million barrier, lower userbase or not.

NCAA for 360 didn't go up from last year acording to either NPD (397.6k this year vs. 397k last year) or vgchartz. I think that at some point bigger userbase it's not really that helping. PS3 version of NCAA saw significant grow (up from 156k last year to 242.5k this year (+55%) acording to July NPD numbers) but it's not that much when one realize that PS3 userbase tripled since July 2007.

This doesn't mean that userbase mean nothing at some point and X360 version still can sell more in longer terms even without futher improvement in first week sales.

I expect Madden trends to be similar to NCAA trends.

My August NPD predictions:
X360: 900k (896.6k in August 2007) 
PS3: 500k (336.2k in August 2007)