I'm still holding to my prediction of new entrant(s) coming onto the scene by next year. I also totally disagree with this assumption that any new entrant would need a ton of money. Obviously you need money for R&D and marketing but that's it. Noone should sell their system at a loss, that was always a bad business model. Even when Sony dominated although their system sold 6:1 vs Nintendo's the end profit was more like 1.5-2:1.
All a new entrant needs to do is follow Nintendo's example. Introduce something mass market friendly, make it innovative and sell it at a profit. Even if it never catches up to the HD consoles it would still be a nice profit generator.
Now this is all too easy to screw up. Apple is probably the best choice, IF they can release it at a mass market price and not Apple's usual premium pricing. But Apple has the know how to do something different and truly innovative while making it seem like the new uber-cool gadget to get.
As for Sony & MS - Yeah they are in R&D for next consoles but I feel both will want to keep the current generation going as long as possible in order to actually achieve profitability (meaning recover start-up costs and make real profit).
