Sales were doing phenomenally when MS stuffed the channel and MS has a way of spinning reality, even internally, to be more agreeable to themselves. They continue to claim things are great for the 360.
It is possible that they stuffed the channel to avoid the embarrassment of missing their (revised) 10 million sales projection. They could have believed sales were on the upswing and would continue as such, and the positive press of having 10 million units on the market would encourage more game devs to hit them as well as more people to buy them.
Decisions like that can often come to a single person, or a small group of like-minded people. It may have been a single person saying, "try to reach the 10 million goal by any means possible." MS has a culture of hiding its mistakes as long as possible and telling management that goals are in sight and will be reached. I think it was a short-sighted mistake.
If MS anticipated the Falcon and wanted time to retool plants, they could've just overproduced and put them in warehouses. They didn't need to stuff the retail channel for that.
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