Prediction: The Xbox360 will be ahead of the PS3, 7 of the next 8 weeks.

[Dodece]

The opposite of love is not hate. The opposite of love is indifference. Being indifferent in that you cannot even be bothered to have any emotional commitment whatsoever. Why am I saying this well, because a lot of gamers on these forums are indifferent to the plight of the poor. They assume in their own self centered way that everyone enjoys the same standard of living they do. They assume that everyone has the freedom of choice.

Well that is just not the way the world happens to be. There are a lot of people that get by on modest sums of money, and how they do that you might ask. Well they are frugal with the money they spend. They have tight wallets, and for them if it costs more then they can afford then it might as well not exist. Necessities do take precedence over luxuries.

The arcade with the new price point is not geared to those that are typically on these forums. The console is directed at consumers of more modest means. For those persons there will be only two choices this holiday season. The 360 arcade of the PS2. That is what posters mean when they say a lower economic bracket, or a broader demographic.

What this means is while Microsoft will still be mining the same market its two competitors are also mining. Microsoft will also be mining the low end market. Which their competitors cannot mine. This means that Microsoft will have a large market exclusive to themselves. So when you think about it Microsoft is actually having two price cuts in North America a cheaper 60GB console for the current market, and a high end console for the low end market.

You cannot literally use old math. Not only has the price dropped, but the possible market to sell the product to increases dramatically. Assume that there are fifty million consumers in North America willing to spend over two hundred dollars on a gaming console. You might however assume that under two hundred dollars there are another hundred million consumers who might be willing to purchase a console.

While everyone is focusing on that last twenty million in that first demographic. Microsoft will be making the move on a much larger demographic which every manufacturer must mine eventually. This is why Microsoft was so confident in their claims. They will enjoy a much larger market to sell their product to then Sony will for quite some time. They will enjoy a significant edge. They will be doubly vested in the high end gaming market, and the low end gaming market.

I really think that if the Arcade arrives at two hundred dollars with the others models having similar cuts. Expect sales in excess of 150,000 weekly in North America. A three hundred dollar 20GB is already driving sales around a hundred thousand. So I think the 360 will at least beat the PS3 weekly by 50,000 units, and in some weeks by as much as 100,000.

So that would be my prediction by the end of this year you will see the 360 beat the PS3 by 100,000 in at least one week.