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I think you are forgetting that Gears 1 impressed many pc gamers that didn`t bought a 360 because there was no need. Gears 2 is exclusive to 360 and it`s a better game than the first,so many pc players will buy the 360 now because it has a big price drop and a great game.
GTA 4 on pc was easy to tell,and when everybody is done with the game,they will want more.Tha 360 will have 2 x 10 hours of more fun,so...yes,another one for 360.
Believe me,xbox 360 will be ahead of ps3. You are only talking about brand lolalty and that is prety big in US for the 360. Europe is where the ps3 does better and in Japan ps3 is selling not so good.