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Groucho on 07 August 2008
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DirtyP2002 said:

I don't get how people can say that this will never happen. Just check the past.

  1. it happened with text-files (.pdf .doc anyone?)
  2. it happened with pictures (It is hard to find a regular camera, not a digital one)
  3. it happened with music (iTunes worlds biggest music retailer)
  4. it is happening with movies (Xbox Live VoD, Apple TV, PSN, amazon.com, netflix - all of them offer VoD)

How can you say that this just won't happen with games? Xbox Live Arcade is extremely popular (Xbox Originals), PSN offers full length games on PSN right now, even Wii offers older games for download, Steam is increadibly successful... This is just starting these days. It will just go the regular way.

 

 

Keep in mind the VoD is highly compressed, because it can be, as are all the data types you mentioned, and the number of consumers who actually use them digitally are massively dwarfed by the number that use physical media. We're talking about 100% digital distribution. The distribution you see now is a mere drop in the ocean of commerce, and it already taxes the infrastructure of the internet.

Does anyone who doesn't live within 3 miles of a DSL repeater station have anything to add to this discussion, or do people actually believe that everyone and their dog has a 3.0 Mb/sec downstream connection to their home? Or that even a remotely large number of households do? Urban areas are not the majority of the population, nor do they represent the the majority of consumers (at least in the USA, where I live). If you have a fast internet connection, you are in the vast minority, even to this day, and you need to step back and get a bigger perspective than the little minitown/convenience store/next-to-the interstate highway neighborhood you live in.

 

This isn't going to change without *substantial* fee increases for ISPs, etc. This goes for commerce bandwidth as well. Those fee increases will make large-scale digital distribution financially undesirable, unless there's something standing in the way of physical production and transport (like an oil crisis). And no, services like Steam, and the current XBL are not large-scale, from that perspective. Lol if you think so. Sure Steam and D2D service millions... once in a while. Therein lies the difference. If I could put a hard number on the bandwidth that retailers effectively put into the hands of consumers each day via physical media, it would be downright astonishing, I guarantee.