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I think as others have said Lost Odyssey does prove the point that mandatory downloads are not required. Seeing as the game has high end cinemas, and has an extensive over world with all the requisite data that entails. What the original poster has also forgotten is that that data slides through the game. The earlier discs will contain more cinema data while the later ones will include more world data. Once a cinema is used the data does not need to move to the next disc, and the data for areas you cannot possibly reach does not need to be on the earlier discs.

The answer is that it would be highly unlikely. More likely that Square would use additional discs rather then compel a mandatory download. Which would by default dissuade many potential purchasers. Not merely the core and arcade owners, but both 360 and PS3 owners which purchased machines with 20gb hard drives. Remember the majority of 360 and PS3 owners in Japan would probably have this same issue low amounts of storage, and while a BluRay disc can hold more data another poster pointed it out the drive runs much slower then the 360 drive.

So Square especially in Japan had to be painfully aware of data management concerns. Remember that the 20gb PS3 is far more prevalent per unit in Japan than in any other region due to stronger early strides and a modest install base. So even for Square in regards to the PS3 there has probably been a great deal of work done ensuring that downloads are not part of the games design.

I expect five discs myself, and I expect hard drive downloads to not be required on either platform. Square has went through far too much development on this title to be undone by poor logistics. Which any mandatory installing would by default do to their product.