| ChronotriggerJM said: Well I think first party development dries out a bit when they release a new system, but it's still great for third parties, hell there's still a ton of stuff being released for the PS2 -_-; |
The PS3's life does not mirror the PS2's. The PS2 is still great for 3rd parties because there are a crap load of them out there and people still buy them. The PS3 has failed to dominate so it will have a different life.
The 10 year cycle does not refer to when they will release the next console. The next new console will come out 5 to 6 years after the PS3 launched. You can put money on that. The cycle has been the same for almost all companies since the days of the SNES. What Sony is trying to say is that the PS3 will be as successful as the PS2. However, this hasn't happened and doesn't look like it will. The 10 year cycle is marketing bullshit. With the PS3 not dominating this generation, it is more likely that 3rd party development for it will dry up much sooner than it has for the PS2 (which is still getting new games). It is much more likely that we will see the Wii continue to get games for the next 10 years simply because of the new market it tapped that isn't as interested in cutting edge graphics.
The real question is this, What approach is Sony taking to the new console? The PS3 was a mess at launch and had to hastily recast itself as primarily a gaming machine shortly after launch. Sony hopefully now knows that they can't do that with the PS4. They ignored their competition with the PS3 and I doubt the new regime will do the same next time. Hopefully Stringer has broken mantality in that company that each department is its own kingdom that fights for power with the others. A few years back, pre-Stringer, news of the internal workings of the company is that interdivisional cooperation was almost non-existant and projects that depended on 2 or more separate divisions were subject to power struggles and sometimes ended in complete disaster (see Sony's MP3 player software). Hirai seems to be a more level headed leader of SCE so I think that the PS4 will have a more purpose driven design. Microsoft will most likely move to Blu-Ray with the next Xbox so that won't be a competitve advantage for them anymore. Sony is going to have to come put of the gate with better design tools and a good online system.
With the PS3 launching in 2006, expect to see the PS4 be displayed at the 2010 or 2011 tradeshows and come out the year after. At least they won't have to worry about a disc format causing a delay.
I give this thread a 9.4.
Thank god for the disable signatures option.
