I think the 10 year cycle for the PS3 is a feasible thing.They are already into the second year of the system.But that doesnt mean there wont be a PS4 until 2016.Probably around 2012 there will be a new machine out.
But the PS3 may kepp support until 2016 ,just as the PS2 is getting some support well into 2008 when it launched in 2000(if you count the years its 9 years no less).
The PS3 ,when it gets under the 250 price point ,will find many more users.Saying it wont ever reach the PS2 userbase is adventuring too much.
About the PS4 well Sony cant let the same of this generation happen by giving MS a 1 headstart at bringing console that isnt too apart from the Sony one to the market.Sony should take one of these approaches:
1)Let MS take that 1 year start ,ok.But then ,one or two years later launch a Sony console vastly superior to the MS one and kill it instantly as all the hardcore gamers MS may have amassed make the jump fast to the Sony plattform.No Blu Ray advantage ,no free online ,no web browser and built in wifi advantages that only those who know will appreciate.I am talking about something so sensible in videgaming that it turns the X720 (or whatever is called) obsolete the same day it hits the market.Until then ,refine the PS3 price and library until they reach their highest and try to get ports of the games that arrive to the market even if its a dumbed down version.
2)Develop the PS4 right now and be ready for whenever MS announces their machine announcing theirs in the next monts.This shouldnt be that difficult,the Cell architecture is gaining popularity between developers and is fully scalable ,the BR is already developed and could include de 8 layers version at 12X ,the PSN will be fully portable to the new machine ,and their have their contract for Nvidia for succesive generations so Nvidia could provide with the best graphics card at the moment.For Sony launching a PSN enabled ,blu ray 200Gb 12X ,Nvidia-built graphics card ,and Cell powered motherboard with say 7 or 8 Cell or Cell+ at 4200 mhz,full BC with PS1-PS2-PS3 catalogue ,everything along 4Gb of Ram and a monster HDD should be a breeze.The problem was to develop the PS3 ,but that effort will pay off in the future.It will be a monster machine and with technologies alredy mastered by developers and proved in the market ,that wont be nearly as expensive then.







