Surveys and other information online state that there is a 90% purchase rate of the Wii by people who owned at least one console from the last generation. I'm not saying that casual gamers aren't buying it (hell my Mom bought one) but I think they are the minority.
I've been a hardcore gamer since the NES days and owned all three systems last gen. Unfortunetely I can't afford to drop $500 on a video game console. I bought the Wii because I could afford $250. I think that may be a shared setiment among hardcore gamers as well.
Like it or not, Nintendo is going to have a huge audience this generation and third parties are already starting to take notice. Several developers have stated in interviews that the Wii is not only cheaper to produce for, but also that the installed base is much larger than they originally thought. They may be getting spin-offs now because (as someone else state) they were caught of gaurd by the success of the Wii.
Whether or not third parties want Wii to win shouldn't be the question because I don't think they really care. What we should be asking is:
Will they make more games for it and thus cause the system to win?
I think the answer is yes, because they can sell more units to the system with the most consoles being played.
