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Momentum = mass x velocity

Sony has increased its velocity, but has yet to reach any critical mass. It is also fair to say that neither MS nor Nintendo has let off the gas on their systems either. One could just as well look selectively at their situations and come to the conclusion that they are picking up momentum as well.

Sony's fate won't be much clearer until:

1) We see how long the 60gigs last.
2) We see how long the sales uptick lasts.
3) We see how good its games and the games of the competition actually are.
4) We see how the 80G hits the market and if it has a price drop before Xmas.
5) We see if or when MS drops its price, and how the market responds.
6) We see if Halo 3 moves consoles.
7) We whether GTA PS2 owners put down money for the 360, PS3 or just take a pass.
8) We see if Nintendo has enough supply for the holidays, and if not, if there is any defection to the 360 or PS3.
9) We see how the 360s extended warrantee and the new Falcon design increases consumer confidence.
10) I can't think of 10, but it doesn't feel right stopping at 9.

The good news for everyone is that most or all of these questions will be answered by January. That's what makes the 2007 holiday so damned important.