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well anything under 24.5 mil is plain stupid.... they will sell 4.5 mil at least from now to the end of the year there is absolutely no question about that, it's just the holiday season power. now 27 is probable, maybe we don't have halo but we do have GoW coming at a perfect time, and other games might reveled themselves to be good system sellers at least for the holiday season....
other than that mrstickball analysis is IMO the most educated guess you have on that thread...