Moore: Sony's Business 'Crumbling' in Japan

[Bodhesatva]

Here's a simple parallel, Ck:

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=DS&reg1=Japan&cons2=PSP&reg2=Japan&cons3=DS&reg3=Japan

This is the timeline of the PSP and DS in Japan. Given that Final Fantasy XIII is set to launch about two years in to the PS3's lifespan, let's look at that point in the DS/PSP race: at that point, the DS had outsold the PSP by nearly 3 to 1, at 12 million and 4 million, respectively (note that currently, the PS3 is actually on track to do even worse than this, comparatively speaking). Are you seriously suggesting that a game that far down the line (in terms of generational life cycles, 2 years in is effectively middle aged) could somehow cause a momentous shift in sales?

I think one could reasonably argue that the trends are already in place and that the market share we see now is, with a little wiggle room, what we'll see 2, 3, and 4 years from now. But suggesting that a huge shift will occur over a year from now? No system in history has ever come even close to dramatic shifts at that point in time.