Stromprophet on 14 March 2007
TheSource said:
You make it sound like Wii is outselling 360 by 1 million + per month and can catch up by July 1.
Look at January
Americas: Wii>360 by ~ 175,000
Japan: Wii>360 by ~ 375,000
Europe: Wii>360? 360>Wii? i suspect the former at 100,000 more or so
That is 650,000/month. Feb-March will probably be more like 500,000. April will be 500,000 just in anticipation of Paper Mario /Golden week (Japan), maybe another 300k in the West. May-August probably back to 500,000 again. I say Wii can be within 1 million behind by August, but that it a far cry from being ahead by early summer. Again, November, October, September are the three most likely months of catching/passing 360. Halo 3 will be huge, but Nintendo will be going for the kill in Japan as DQIX, Smash Brothers and non-games carry the day to offset the 360 hype in the US. Catching up by July worldwide is outrageous. August is a huge long shot, but I'll give you this, it might just be possible (1-2%). September is unlikely, October is like 25%, November is close to 40%...
But all of this assumes 360 has no games besides Halo 3 to drive hardware.
Looking at prelim numbers for February, and the fact that the Japanese numbers have come down to 60k a week. I'd say that the pace will slow and it will take longer for Wii to overcome 360.
Prelim numbers suggest Wii may outpace 360 by 100k in America. Probably by about 220k in Japan, and who knows about Europe.
But I'd say at most it may outpace the 360 by 400k, which would put us about 10 months from now. However, if Halo comes out in the fall all bets are off and 360 might win the Holidays in the US.
Plus we don't know if a 360 price drop is coming in the fall or not. If it does 360 will maintain their lead for longer.
