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couple of issues with your "analysis" and I use the term pretty loosely:

1) Where'd you pull 25% failure rate from, source or it didn't happen

2) I'm pretty sure it's been proven that features does not necessarily equate to higher value for money. The original Xbox was a modification beast, and all the extra features that a few simple and inexpensives mods could do did not result in a huge rush of sales.

Also, look at the PSP vs DS. Who's winning that battle? DS. Which one will stay in the market longer? DS.

Ditto the Wii. It's not even a DVD player and it is selling like hotcakes, I doubt that is going anywhere any time soon so long as Nintendo can keep pushing them out the door at the rate they are going at. It is arguably the least technologically advanced (depending on how you view motion controls) and yet if sales continue like this (it being ahead of PS3 and 360) it will likely outlast them both.

As for the 360, games, games, games, games. So long as the 360 library continues to outshine the PS3's (which is guaranteed for at least another year) I don't think it's sales will drop to the point where MS would be compelled to release another product.

Finally, this may not be a proper indicator of it's lifespan, but it's better then anything you've put up, MS representatives (shane kim most noteably) have stated (albeit not in answer to a question but just a general comment he's made in interviews) that the 360 is nearing it's mid-life of it's cycle, so that's about 3 years (assuming nearing means by this year). If anything it'll stop being the flagship console for MS by around 2011 but it'll still be around, MS has learnt from the mistakes of the XBOX (with the production being forced to cease) and will ensure that maximise the 360's lifespan the same way Sony is bleed the PS1 and is bleeding the PS2.

Curiously, was this thread supposed to be your way of reassuring yourself that you've made the right choice when you picked the PS3 or are you just another PS3 fanboy that thinks that you'll hault 360 sales by posting on a forum in which nearly all users have already bought one or more of the 3 home consoles and are basically content with what they have and are unlikely to buy any others?