I think people who currently buy DVD movies will eventually move on to buying Bluray movies. I think people who currently rent movies from Blockbuster/Hollywood Video, will move on to VOD.
Why would I want to have a movie on Bluray rather than purchasing it online? Because it is guaranteed to play in any of my Bluray players (currently only my PS3, but I imagine it'll become more mainstream later). If I download a movie for purchase on my PS3, can I play it on anything other than my PS3 or PSP? In fact, the PS3 movie service is the only service that I'm aware of that let's you download movies for keeps, and not just as a rental. If Microsoft started letting you download movies for purchase, would I be able to play that movie anywhere else? Or just on my XBox360?
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