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point where there really is no need to push shaders further in the raster rendering model.


I think that is a daring statement. There is so much room left for better shader effects you cannot even imagine it.
Currently pixel shaders are the bottleneck for most games. I do not think this will change with the next generation. Computing more and better dynamic lightsources (the most important improvement IMO) is all shader work.

That's number one. More detailled environments and textures is number 2 and until now post-processing effects are a problem I would like to get rid of as often as possible because it mostly results in blurred confusing images. But this may be a personal thing. I like clear, sharp looking games and think post processing is mainly used to conceal problems of the engine. (Similar to the good old distance "fog") GTA4 looks great but the cities and views in Assassin's Creed were as complex and big and looked better with far less blurriness.