I've been looking through some numbers (the ps2's '06 numbers, the 360's '07 numbers, among others), and it seems that stable consoles (as in those that aren't dying, or those that haven't recieved an unexpected boost, ala the PSP) general sell 1.5-1.6x as much from mid-July to the end of the year as they sell from the beginning of the year to mid-July (for example, the ps2 sold ~5 million for the first part of 2006, and another 7.5 million for the latter part), but sometimes sales can increase significantly more in the latter part of the year (for example, the 360 sold ~2.5 million for the beginning of last year, and another 5.6 million for the rest of the year, a 2.2x difference because of Halo 3 + NA price drop).
Now if we assume the ps3 has an increase of only 1.5x for the remainder of the year, then it should sell another 8 million consoles or so before the year is out, putting its yearly total at around 13.3 million, which means I'll have underestimated the ps3's end of year total by at least 2 million.
Man, the video game market has grown so much. It's very impressive when a distant second place console can sell so much in a year (assuming it does sell that much).
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