MS wouldn't have profited much at all from HD-DVD's success. I doubt they made much from the drives themselves (they were pretty cheap) and they made no royalties from disc sales (other than the marginal amount they receive from their codecs used in HD-DVD).
People seem to be very confused about MS's stake in HD-DVD. They owned the rights to a few codecs and would have profited somewhat from those had the format succeeded... Other than that, they were just looking to be a thorn in Sony's (and Blu-ray's) side. They had very little financial stake in the format, nor would they have profited much from its success.

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