I think that the FPS market is tapped and that Gears will sell very very few console, but will reach your stated numbers. I also don't think Resistance 2 will do much better than the original, since the 360 has most of the FPS market and has enough FPS games still coming out that 360 fans arn't going to jump ship.
I think Banjo Kazooie: Nuts and Bolts could be a big system seller if properly advetsied along kameo and Viva ect







