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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Analysts see Project Natal adding billions to Microsoft's revenue!

Boneitis said:
amp316 said:
Boneitis said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Boneitis said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking.

People pay money for Wii Sports in Japan, and also at GameStop, eBay.com, and Nintendo.com.  I think people like it.  I think it's one of the best games of the decade.

Its barely a game in my opinion. But there's clearly a market for games like that.

They could easily make something similar and even better with the Natal. More importantly, we could use our avatars!

Well that's an interesting philosophy, but the key word there is "easily."  If it was so easy to steal the minds and hearts of the whole planet with a game like Wii Sports, everybody would be doing it.  But it JUST happened with Wii Sports.  Microsoft has to make lightning strike in the same place twice... but then put their name on it instead of Nintendo's name, and Nintendo has been building that momentum with that audience for over 3 years now.

All I'm saying is Natal is a crazy uphill battle.  Changing your strategy halfway through the battle is nuts either way.  Going motion controls now is just as crazy as Nintendo making a Wii HD.

I just said they can easily make a more enjoyable game. You're talking about the hype/success.

Bad comparison. Motion controls on the 360 is going to be an add-on. Its the same console and its looking like it should be a cheap device. The Wii HD on the otherhand would be a new console.

You really think that they EASILY can make a game for Natal that's more enjoyable than Wii Sports?  Are you kidding me?  Have you played either Wii Sports or it's sequel?  I'm guessing that you haven't.  Let me tell you something about Wii Sports; that is the game that everyone will talk about from this generation 20 years from now.  Plain and simple.  Nintendo was at it's lowest point when the Wii came out.  What was once thought of as great was now looked at as a kid's toy that resembled a purple lunch box, and Wii Sports alone was the game that made these skeptical consumers want to buy a Nintendo console again.  There is tons of depth to the game and is not just popular because people love to waggle as you stated in a previous post. 

Nintendo is the only of the big three that's a gaming only company.  Don't you think that this might be why people might enjoy their games?  Maybe they know how to make them, don't you think?  I guess not.  I'm sure that Microsoft will pack in something with Natal that's infinitely better, right?

   

Are you asking if I played a game bundled with every Wii? The answer is yes. I haven't played the sequel much, but I didn't mention it.

There are a lot of games people will talk about for the next 20 years. Some are good, most are bad, but people will talk. What's your point?

You Wii fans seem to think I'm saying MS will create something more successful than Wii Sports. In reality I'm just saying it shouldn't be too hard to make something more enjoyable than Wii Sports. In my opinion, Wii Sports is barely a game. Its kind of like a few tech demos. Natal will also be actual motion detection, not waggle detection. So there is a lot more potential to create something great.

I'm not saying anything absurd like, "MS will create a platformer better than Mario Bros." But creating mini games better than what Wii Sports offers seems very possible and easy to do.

So you haven't played the game that has improved the original technology (that much)?  Interesting.

My point is that Wii Sports is THE GAME that people will be talking about in 20 years.  I am not just talking about core gamers, but everyone.   Not only because of the introduction of motion controls, but because it is extremely fun.  That's my point.

US Wii fans, as you put it, do not think that you are saying that MS will create something more successful than Wii Sports.  Us Wii fans think that you are saying that it should be easy to make something more enjoyable than Wii Sports and claim that it's barely a game and a few tech demos.  This means that you are completely dismissing it.  It's actually a very deep game.  Have you tried to get medals in the training mode?  Did you know that there was a training mode?  Without the Wii or Wii Sports, there wouldn't be a Natal.  This is MS changing their strategy in the middle of this generation which is a sign of desperation IMO.  Wii Motion Plus is also actual motion detection and not waggle detection.  1:1 motions can now be read.  This statement makes me believe that you haven't tried Wii Sports Resort at all and that's why you didin't mention it.  I actually find the potential of Natal to be the least of all three motion controllers because there isn't a controller.  I'll give you an example of it's limitations.  How do you shoot a gun?  Do you go, "Bang!  Bang!" and hold your hand out in the shape of a gun?  I'm curious.  Maybe you ask Milo to do it for you?

There is no doubting Wii Sports popularity whether you like it or not, right?  If creating mini games better than Wii Sports offers is so easy than explain to me why both MS and Sony haven't done it yet?        



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amp316 said:

So you haven't played the game that has improved the original technology (that much)?  Interesting.

My point is that Wii Sports is THE GAME that people will be talking about in 20 years.  I am not just talking about core gamers, but everyone.   Not only because of the introduction of motion controls, but because it is extremely fun.  That's my point.

US Wii fans, as you put it, do not think that you are saying that MS will create something more successful than Wii Sports.  Us Wii fans think that you are saying that it should be easy to make something more enjoyable than Wii Sports and claim that it's barely a game and a few tech demos.  This means that you are completely dismissing it.  It's actually a very deep game.  Have you tried to get medals in the training mode?  Did you know that there was a training mode?  Without the Wii or Wii Sports, there wouldn't be a Natal.  This is MS changing their strategy in the middle of this generation which is a sign of desperation IMO.  Wii Motion Plus is also actual motion detection and not waggle detection.  1:1 motions can now be read.  This statement makes me believe that you haven't tried Wii Sports Resort at all and that's why you didin't mention it.  I actually find the potential of Natal to be the least of all three motion controllers because there isn't a controller.  I'll give you an example of it's limitations.  How do you shoot a gun?  Do you go, "Bang!  Bang!" and hold your hand out in the shape of a gun?  I'm curious.  Maybe you ask Milo to do it for you?

There is no doubting Wii Sports popularity whether you like it or not, right?  If creating mini games better than Wii Sports offers is so easy than explain to me why both MS and Sony haven't done it yet?        

And especially how come none of the third parties on the Wii could do it, lord knows they've tried. Hundreds and hundreds of games made by people who think like boneitis that selling casual games to casual customers is easy.



A game I'm developing with some friends:

www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm

It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.

T3h Hyp3. Stop pl0x.




I am Kong.


Strong and passionate, I tend to be misunderstood, sometimes even feared. I don't want to fight, I don't want to cause trouble, all I ask is a little love, and a little peace. If I don't get what I want, I get angry, and throw barrels and flaming oil at whatever's stopping me. What Video Game Character Are You?
huaxiong90 said:
A bit bold, but we'll see. Microsoft did garner a lot of media attention with Project Natal, now they need killer software and the right price.

And all we've seen is that cancelled 2 finger heroes project, which looked awful. It making me think all Natal is going to do is get a load of crappy Wii games ported to the 360 (This is not me calling all Wii games crap). This, the point some critics made about the awkwardness of not having a controller and the first proper look I saw of the PS Arc is putting me off Natal.



amp316 said:
Boneitis said:
amp316 said:
Boneitis said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Boneitis said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking.

People pay money for Wii Sports in Japan, and also at GameStop, eBay.com, and Nintendo.com.  I think people like it.  I think it's one of the best games of the decade.

Its barely a game in my opinion. But there's clearly a market for games like that.

They could easily make something similar and even better with the Natal. More importantly, we could use our avatars!

Well that's an interesting philosophy, but the key word there is "easily."  If it was so easy to steal the minds and hearts of the whole planet with a game like Wii Sports, everybody would be doing it.  But it JUST happened with Wii Sports.  Microsoft has to make lightning strike in the same place twice... but then put their name on it instead of Nintendo's name, and Nintendo has been building that momentum with that audience for over 3 years now.

All I'm saying is Natal is a crazy uphill battle.  Changing your strategy halfway through the battle is nuts either way.  Going motion controls now is just as crazy as Nintendo making a Wii HD.

I just said they can easily make a more enjoyable game. You're talking about the hype/success.

Bad comparison. Motion controls on the 360 is going to be an add-on. Its the same console and its looking like it should be a cheap device. The Wii HD on the otherhand would be a new console.

You really think that they EASILY can make a game for Natal that's more enjoyable than Wii Sports?  Are you kidding me?  Have you played either Wii Sports or it's sequel?  I'm guessing that you haven't.  Let me tell you something about Wii Sports; that is the game that everyone will talk about from this generation 20 years from now.  Plain and simple.  Nintendo was at it's lowest point when the Wii came out.  What was once thought of as great was now looked at as a kid's toy that resembled a purple lunch box, and Wii Sports alone was the game that made these skeptical consumers want to buy a Nintendo console again.  There is tons of depth to the game and is not just popular because people love to waggle as you stated in a previous post. 

Nintendo is the only of the big three that's a gaming only company.  Don't you think that this might be why people might enjoy their games?  Maybe they know how to make them, don't you think?  I guess not.  I'm sure that Microsoft will pack in something with Natal that's infinitely better, right?

   

Are you asking if I played a game bundled with every Wii? The answer is yes. I haven't played the sequel much, but I didn't mention it.

There are a lot of games people will talk about for the next 20 years. Some are good, most are bad, but people will talk. What's your point?

You Wii fans seem to think I'm saying MS will create something more successful than Wii Sports. In reality I'm just saying it shouldn't be too hard to make something more enjoyable than Wii Sports. In my opinion, Wii Sports is barely a game. Its kind of like a few tech demos. Natal will also be actual motion detection, not waggle detection. So there is a lot more potential to create something great.

I'm not saying anything absurd like, "MS will create a platformer better than Mario Bros." But creating mini games better than what Wii Sports offers seems very possible and easy to do.

So you haven't played the game that has improved the original technology (that much)?  Interesting.

My point is that Wii Sports is THE GAME that people will be talking about in 20 years.  I am not just talking about core gamers, but everyone.   Not only because of the introduction of motion controls, but because it is extremely fun.  That's my point.

US Wii fans, as you put it, do not think that you are saying that MS will create something more successful than Wii Sports.  Us Wii fans think that you are saying that it should be easy to make something more enjoyable than Wii Sports and claim that it's barely a game and a few tech demos.  This means that you are completely dismissing it.  It's actually a very deep game.  Have you tried to get medals in the training mode?  Did you know that there was a training mode?  Without the Wii or Wii Sports, there wouldn't be a Natal.  This is MS changing their strategy in the middle of this generation which is a sign of desperation IMO.  Wii Motion Plus is also actual motion detection and not waggle detection.  1:1 motions can now be read.  This statement makes me believe that you haven't tried Wii Sports Resort at all and that's why you didin't mention it.  I actually find the potential of Natal to be the least of all three motion controllers because there isn't a controller.  I'll give you an example of it's limitations.  How do you shoot a gun?  Do you go, "Bang!  Bang!" and hold your hand out in the shape of a gun?  I'm curious.  Maybe you ask Milo to do it for you?

There is no doubting Wii Sports popularity whether you like it or not, right?  If creating mini games better than Wii Sports offers is so easy than explain to me why both MS and Sony haven't done it yet?        

Interesting, who was talking about Wii Sports Resort to begin with? I'm just focusing on Wii Sports.

People speak fondly about whatever comes free with a console. I still tell people Sewer Shark was an amazing game, completely ahead of its time. And don't get me started on Streets of Rage 2.

The Natal does a full skeletal mapping. That means it can actually track each finger down to the finger tip. Therefore you should be able to use your hands as a virtual controller. For example flicking your index finger would be the same as tapping the R trigger. Your thumbs could act as dual analogs. The possibilities are endless!

The reason MS and Sony haven't done that yet is because they still use standard controls. Obviously games like that wouldn't have the same appeal on a joystick. Natal is opening that door, but you obviously knew that.



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theRepublic said:
Boneitis said:
Wagram said:
Analysts also predicted that Titanic and Avatar were going to be box office failures. Look what happened.

Honestly this is a wait and see for me. I'm not too sure whether or not many HD fans will adapt to using motion controllers. If they wanted them they could have just purchased a Wii. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 The Natal has far more potential than the Wii. Let me know when the Wii doesn't require a controller.

 And the technology will be used beyond the Xbox 360.

This is where you and I differ.  I see Natal having less potential because it doesn't have a controller.  I guess we will have to wait and see what kind of games get released for it.

It can track the exact movements of each finger. Your hands are the controller!



Boneitis said:

It can track the exact movements of each finger. Your hands are the controller!

Source?



A game I'm developing with some friends:

www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm

It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.

Demotruk said:
Boneitis said:

It can track the exact movements of each finger. Your hands are the controller!

Source?


Wikipedia says it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Natal

The title of this article is pretty straight forward. http://kotaku.com/5279531/

This article mentions it. http://www.girlgamer.com/zine/article/202/

More of the same. http://www.electricpig.co.uk/2009/06/01/xbox-project-natal-blows-wii-away-with-full-body-motion-control/



A touch of exaggeration so?

"Tsunoda said that such detection was possible, though the sensitivity would be different at different distances. He thought my fingers idea was do-able." is not quite "it can track the exact movements of your finger".

See, for exact tracking each finger would have at least three but probably four points. So that's 30-40 joints, and Natal only tracks 48 points in total. 30 points for fingers and only 18 for the rest of the body? I'm sure it does finger tracking, but I really doubt you're going to be able to use small movements to pretend to pull a trigger, push a button and the like.



A game I'm developing with some friends:

www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm

It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.

Demotruk said:
A touch of exaggeration so?

"Tsunoda said that such detection was possible, though the sensitivity would be different at different distances. He thought my fingers idea was do-able." is not quite "it can track the exact movements of your finger".

See, for exact tracking each finger would have at least three but probably four points. So that's 30-40 joints, and Natal only tracks 48 points in total. 30 points for fingers and only 18 for the rest of the body? I'm sure it does finger tracking, but I really doubt you're going to be able to use small movements to pretend to pull a trigger, push a button and the like.


Well why would it track each finger if it won't track the movment? Guess we'll have to wait and see.