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When will PS3 lose its momentum?!

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Shane said: Which supports original post. N64 was one of the fastest selling conoles. So? Nintendo needs more than a strong launch to be more than third place. What's going to continue demand going forward? Mario, Pokemon, and Zelda can only get them so far. Unless they get some real third party support and not one crappy announcement here and there, there's only so far they can go. I don't see any data that suggests a change to their ranking from last generation, though we may see a boost back toward N64 levels in terms of unit sales.
I think something that you miss here is that it isn't zelda moving units in Japan, it is Wii sport. if that one has legs as the brain training games I don't see a problem at all :-/



 

 

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Cool, I was referenced. Anyhow, the Wii’s lack of power could be seen as a benefit here. By being so different from the competition it forces games to be made specifically for it which is what it needs given the Wiimote. Had Nintendo gone with say a dual core 2.5 GHz processor with 256 MB of RAM (I recall reading that as a rumor in the Revolution days) then it would almost be certain that current spell of terrible PS2 ports with pathetic motion controls tacked on would quickly become terrible 360 ports with pathetic motion controls tacked on. Given Nintendo’s performance last go around there is no way they could have expected nor received greater 3rd party support this time. The price of the Wii would have also been over $300 putting Nintendo in direct competition with Sony and Microsoft and also locking out the casual/new gamer crowd that has powered the Wii’s sales. With Sony and Microsoft both taking the super-uber system route, Nintendo was given a golden opportunity to grab the casual gamer market before MS or Sony could react. With a large base, far lower development costs, and an incompatible system, 3rd party developers will have to make exclusives which means they may as well figure out how motion controls work. Nintendo had a year head start but the 3rd party people are catching on. Ignoring HD may be a cardinal sin to a hard-core gamer but it isn’t to the majority of the video game market that either doesn’t have HDTV or doesn’t care about the difference in graphics. System and game sales are a self feeding loop. The PS2 got a head start and rode the brand name and cheap DVD player to a large lead. That caused it to be the system that had multiple games for every possible genre and niche produced for it. That caused system sales to increase which caused more games to be made, and so forth. If the Wii (yes it is an if) continues to sell at its current rate it will be the system that gets all the niche and ok games. That's not to mention the Wii will be home to Dragon Quest X and FF XIV. I remember when Nintendo fanboys like myself used to make fun of the Playstation and its vast catalog of mediocre games while Nintendo has a smaller number of mostly excellent titles, but which one sold systems? If the PS3 doesn’t start picking up serious steam soon it will have a very hard time doing so later. I keep reading on these forums about Sony’s awesome 1st party games but looking at the best selling games of all time I see only 7 Sony titles, all either Gran Turismo or Crash Bandicoot, over 5 million despite it having back to back 100+ million systems. Nintendo has 9 despite selling ¼ as many systems the last two generations. Nintendo has proven it can survive with only 1st party AAA titles, it’s looking like we’re going to learn if Sony can do the same.



PS3 is easily beating the original, and the original is the second best selling system in history, well ahead of every system that launched better than it did. A strong start out of the gate may be nice, but it's no guarantee. PSP is outselling Nintendo's first portable. It may not be winning, but did anyone honestly expect it to? Sony didn't exactly rush out of the gates last time either. Definitely better than this time, but they got off to a slow start, though that was arguably more supply constrained. The reality is, though, that regardless that the $600 price tag, which is the biggest obstacle, won't be around forever, and Sony does have a lot of killer apps coming down the pike. N64 and Gamecube both had record setting launches... then laid down and died. Will Wii follow in their footsteps? Maybe. Maybe not. But assuming that it won't just on the basis of a couple months of good sales is just wrong. If I had this console war my way, I wouldn't be backing Sony. The inclusion of Blu-Ray was arrogant and careless. I do believe Microsoft has a better vision for the future of the industry (Nintendo's in its own little world, but that's okay because that's what we've come to expect from them over the years). But just because I think that Sony deserves to pay for that doesn't mean they will. Like it or not, they will get away with it. Anyone who thinks Wii will win the war is kidding themselves only. If Nintendo can get the system up to N64 levels while not losing, or perhaps even gaining, in terms of third party support, they're going to consider that very successful. The concept that we've got our third 100 million seller on our hands is laughable. The point isn't Zelda or Mario specifically... it's Nintendo's first party games. Nintendo needs more than just that. They don't have very much, and to make matters worse, most of their second parties bailed on them within the past 5 years. Rare, Left Field, Factor 5, and Silicon Knights all jumped ship to work for the enemy. The way I view the hardware design is that it's the biggest blessing and the biggest curse. It's a first party decision made for first party reasons of saving a buck, but I don't imagine developers embracing it. Sony is probably the most underestimated first party company in the industry, but their publishing history speaks for itself.



The PS3 is beating the original, but the original was from a company new to the video game industry that was going up against the titans of the industry, Sega and Nintendo. The original was new had to prove itself first. The PS3 shouldn’t have anything to prove and should thus be compared the PS2 since it is from the established industry leader with the largest fan base and so forth. It’s not an exact comparison since the PS2 launched in March in Japan but in approximately the first 4 months the PS2 sold 4,114k units in JP+NA compared with 1,989k for the PS3. Not only that but the PS2’s sales didn’t fall off the way the PS3’s have for almost 9 months (then it appears only because of the US/PALand launches). During the same time frame, except for the first week of the year, the PS3 greatest selling week (47k) is less than the PS2’s worst week (49k). The US isn’t as good an indicator due to having sales data by month but the PS2 didn’t sell below 262k for its first year. The PS3 despite being in ample supply already sold half that for a month. You can say the PS3 isn’t the worst selling system in history (it clearly isn’t) but comparing the successor to the PS1 & 2 to the Xbox or the first year of the PS1 is a sad place for both it and Sony to be. The PSP only this year sold more than the GBA in the US and then not by much. Japan is different but they switched over to the DS quicker and in a bigger way than the US did. I don’t find it surprising for the 2 year old system to outsell a 6 year old system. Even the Xbox 360 will outsell the PS2 at some point, probably this year. We’ll have to wait and see about the Wii of course, but it is outselling the PS2 from what can be garnered on this site (Europe’s figures being yearly is annoying), but the above sales + first Christmas in PALand = 4,784k for PS2 and 4,911k for the Wii. The GameCube and N64 were already lying down and dying at this point, despite both also widely available. May not be a 100 million seller but it’s on its way. You have to tap the casual market to hit 100 million and only the Wii has a price point capable of doing that this generation. MS may eventually, but the main flaw of the PS3 is that it cannot without financially ruining Sony. Yes the vaunted Sony 1st party, the one that can’t match Nintendo despite selling 4 times as many systems. If Nintendo couldn’t push systems based on 1st party Sony sure isn’t.



There's more to the equation than that, though. PS3's biggest competitor is PS2, while PS1 didn't cost 50% more than any previous system. On the contrary, it launched at 25% less than the only other alternative that was available at the time. PS3 did stutter for one month, but one month doesn't determine anything. The only time one month can have a serious impact is if it's December and you shift over 2 million units. Regardless, the point still stands. Sony built the PlayStation despite a lackluster launch into what was at the time by far the best selling console in history. My point isn't whether the PS3 launch is better or worse. My point is that it's better but that the PS launch being worse didn't matter. At all. Nintendo's first portable was Gameboy (and the other 100 things it morphed into). Gran Turismo's the strongest first party franchise next to Halo. SOCOM's just as big as anything Nintendo's got. Sony's the one that put Square on the map in the west, like Nintendo didn't do and some would argue could not have done, especially in Europe. God Of War looks to be the next big thing. Naughty Dog and Insomniac have proven very successful with Sony's publishing. People like to knock Sony because it's hip, but their games sell whether people wish to admit it or not.



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Bragging about Sony game sales would be more effective if the sales figures weren't on the website whose forum you're using. Yes Gran Turismo has sold well, anything else (I know the answer is no but go have a look)? I think a key thing with video game sales that people can't seem to understand for some reason is that a $300 system that drops to $200 in a year or 2 can sell to the casual market that generates the majority of sales while a $600 system is not going to do that. Same thing in handhelds, $250 is too much and has restricted the PSP to mostly hardcore gamers. That's enough to sell ok, up to 30 million or so, but that isnt anywhere near 100 million. The PS1 was also hampered initially by the upcoming launch of the N64 which as market leader overshadowed it and because it launched a bit early in the console cycle. Similarly the Dreamcast was overshadowed by the PS2. The PS3 doesn't face any of those problems, it's not a system that should need building up. The fact that it does is not good for the former market leader. I'm not sure if the PSP is outselling the Gameboy at this point since the I can't find per year sales figures for the GB but nevertheless if the PSP is selling better (it would only be slightly) than the original Gameboy isn't impressive either. The Gameboy launched into a smaller video game market and was the first major portable system. BTW, I was bashing Sony before it was hip, good to hear it is hip though .



shane alot of your arguements are just crazy. Like comparing the n64 to the Wii, they are complete opposites. At this point in the n64's life everyone was talking bad about, third parties we're jumping ship left and right. Right now third parties are jumping on the band wagon for the Wii, it has more support then Nintendo has seen in years. Secondly if you think Sony's 1st/2nd party titles are selling as strong as Nintendo's you haven't looked at the stats on this site. Look at Worldwide software shipments most of the games on their are from Nintendo, I don't mean that Nintendo has more than any other publisher, I'm saying they have most of the best selling games period. And I'll say it right now GT will not sell as strong as say Wii sports, it just doesn't have the userbase to push those kinds of numbers. And already Wii sports, Wii play, and even Zelda are selling the pants of titles like Resistance. Do you think Heavenly Sword, Lair, Killzone 2 are going to outsell Mario Galaxy, Smash Bros., or even Wii Health? I don't think so, in fact I'll predict right now Wii Health will outsell all three of those sony games combined. Third you talk about 2nd parties jumping ship, like Rare and such, but you forget there are new studios that are taken on all the time, like Retro Studios, and a few others that I forget the name of but I know there is at least three others that are working with Nintendo. And what about Sony, they're not only losing exclusives to a multiplatform launch, but in some cases they're entirely losing franchises like Dragon Quest moving to the DS. I'm not trying to bash Sony for mentioning this, just trying to say that the industry is always evolving developers and studios are always shifting about, so it's silly to just focus on one aspect and pretend it's all bad.



Sony only owns 1 IP that has EVER sold 10 million copies of a game. Gran Turismo. Nintendo just hit the 10 million mark with Nintendogs. By May, they'll hit it with Pokemon and NSMB. I'm betting Wii Play crosses the mark too (obviously Wii Sports will). 10 million is a mark only about 25 games have ever hit; Nintendo seems to be doing it regularly. Sony only owns 1 IP that has EVER sold even FOUR million copies of a game. Gran Turismo (2 times on PS2) Nintendo has hit the 4 million mark with Mario (6 times), Mario Kart (3 times), Zelda (soon to be twice), Smash Bros, Brain Age (2 times), Pokemon (many times, no matter how you count it), Nintendogs and Animal Crossing since the launch of PS2. Now... Get into the 3 million sellers... And 2 million sellers... And Sony's list grows substantially. But overall... Without 3rd parties they crumble like a house of cards, compared to Nintendo.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

Erik Aston said: Sony only owns 1 IP that has EVER sold 10 million copies of a game. Gran Turismo. Nintendo just hit the 10 million mark with Nintendogs. By May, they'll hit it with Pokemon and NSMB. I'm betting Wii Play crosses the mark too (obviously Wii Sports will). 10 million is a mark only about 25 games have ever hit; Nintendo seems to be doing it regularly. Sony only owns 1 IP that has EVER sold even FOUR million copies of a game. Gran Turismo (2 times on PS2) Nintendo has hit the 4 million mark with Mario (6 times), Mario Kart (3 times), Zelda (soon to be twice), Smash Bros, Brain Age (2 times), Pokemon (many times, no matter how you count it), Nintendogs and Animal Crossing since the launch of PS2. Now... Get into the 3 million sellers... And 2 million sellers... And Sony's list grows substantially. But overall... Without 3rd parties they crumble like a house of cards, compared to Nintendo.
Didn't know that! Nintendo must be doing something right.



 

  

 

Shane said: There's more to the equation than that, though. PS3's biggest competitor is PS2, while PS1 didn't cost 50% more than any previous system. On the contrary, it launched at 25% less than the only other alternative that was available at the time. PS3 did stutter for one month, but one month doesn't determine anything. The only time one month can have a serious impact is if it's December and you shift over 2 million units. Regardless, the point still stands. Sony built the PlayStation despite a lackluster launch into what was at the time by far the best selling console in history. My point isn't whether the PS3 launch is better or worse. My point is that it's better but that the PS launch being worse didn't matter. At all. Nintendo's first portable was Gameboy (and the other 100 things it morphed into).
Well first no PS3 biggest opponent isn't PS2, Wii is outselling PS2 in both Japan and USA so the market leader for next gen is Wii. Second is that PS launched in a time were Nintendo were screawing every 3rd part dev with harder and harder rules and higher cost in publishing games. Now we find a company that is talking about keeping the cost down for 3rd party devs, expanding the market and so forth. When the PS launched it didn't have two hungry companies (with good finance at least)wanting to get a bigger part of the market. Nintendo was wery arogant, they would win without any games, sega didn't have any money... PS3 is launched against the xbox360 and Wii. Were the first is doing ok and the second is selling much more than PS3. For the moment Wii doesn't have many AAA titles but it has got a big amount of games. PS3 doesn't have this titles, looking at the sonys japanese site you find that roughly 1 new game per month will arrive to PS3. Look at history: * Nintendo belived that quality is better then quantity with the N64, well they failed * Sega thought that more power was more intressting than games, well they failed to beat Nintendo. PS3 has two problems: * no games (or few games that you can't find on another plattform for a cheaper price (xbox360)) * price tag of 500$ in usa (if you could find that one) 400$(?) in japan, it doesn't sell.



 

 

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