The whole PS3 lasting for 10 years thing is really just meant the same way the PS2 is still going now -- they'll bring out a PS4 in the normal 5-6 years, but keep supporting the PS3 at the same time. Now, this'll only actually happen if the PS3 sales pick up enough for it to be worth the continued support into the next gen.

Wii graphics are already outdated.  What are you talking about?

Right now all 3 consoles are technically outdated graphically, what's your point?

Interesting thread going here, though it would be nice if a few contributors could cool their heads enough to keep it civil. In any case, concerning when new consoles might come out. One thing you need to consider is the cost of development.

From all reports, sony dumped billions of dollars into the development of the PS3. Who knows how much microsoft has dumped into xbox360, but I would assume that they still haven't broken even yet (even if they are making money now, they still have to make up for all the money on development and on selling the console below cost...). On the other hand, Nintendo is selling the Wii at a profit, in fact they've always sold their consoles at a profit, though it's probably because they don't have the deep pockets that sony or M$ do.

So what this tells me, from a business perspective, is that Nintendo will break even on the development costs long before either of the other two. Once they've broken even and are actually making positive income on the wii, they can start dumping money into future development. Sony on the other hand has a very very long way to go before they break even, and every console they sell puts them deeper into the hole, instead of digging them out. It would be a pretty poor business decision to start developing a new multi-billion dollar console before the previous one is even paid off. Microsoft did it once, but I doubt even Billy is willing to dump millions into a business that never makes money.

Anyway, I bring this up because it puts a limit on how soon Sony (or the other two) can develop the next systems. I could be wrong I guess (I'm not a Sony exec) but I can't see them starting development on ps4 at least for several years (at least not serious development).  I doubt Sony shareholders would approve...

vanguardian1 said: Right now all 3 consoles are technically outdated graphically, what's your point?

What do you mean? You are compromising yourself with statement like that. PS3 and X360 outdated? Do you know what does the outdated mean? High-end PC (~$2000) has better graphics than these consoles - it's true, but it's still the same level (lets take the Oblivion for an instance). Resolution is higher, anti-aliasing is better  etc. but there is a place for comparison. When we are talking about Wii there is no comparison to PS3/X360 you can try to find some superiority to X/PS2 version if you like.  Get real.

Wii graphics to be 'outdated' by 2008 or 2009, but are you really looking for gears of war on the Wii?

 

Also, style and design have a lot to do with how good games look, I mean Okami looks better than Gears I think most people would agree... 

Kytiara said: Interesting thread going here, though it would be nice if a few contributors could cool their heads enough to keep it civil. In any case, concerning when new consoles might come out. One thing you need to consider is the cost of development. From all reports, sony dumped billions of dollars into the development of the PS3. Who knows how much microsoft has dumped into xbox360, but I would assume that they still haven't broken even yet (even if they are making money now, they still have to make up for all the money on development and on selling the console below cost...). On the other hand, Nintendo is selling the Wii at a profit, in fact they've always sold their consoles at a profit, though it's probably because they don't have the deep pockets that sony or M$ do. So what this tells me, from a business perspective, is that Nintendo will break even on the development costs long before either of the other two. Once they've broken even and are actually making positive income on the wii, they can start dumping money into future development. Sony on the other hand has a very very long way to go before they break even, and every console they sell puts them deeper into the hole, instead of digging them out. It would be a pretty poor business decision to start developing a new multi-billion dollar console before the previous one is even paid off. Microsoft did it once, but I doubt even Billy is willing to dump millions into a business that never makes money. Anyway, I bring this up because it puts a limit on how soon Sony (or the other two) can develop the next systems. I could be wrong I guess (I'm not a Sony exec) but I can't see them starting development on ps4 at least for several years (at least not serious development).  I doubt Sony shareholders would approve...

So you are saying that Sony is leaving console business after PS3, if it does not break even? There is no future really for PS3 after next gen release if PS3 doesnt sell more than its competitors. Well why not exiting, they are expanding their games development department, so SCE could easilly just make games. @davygee. Look how technology advances and prices drop, to 6-7 years you will be able to sell console more powerful than PS3 for 200 and make even profit from it. If quantum processors make the market by then, they might be cheaper to manufacture and provide much more power than traditional processors at the time.

bdbdbd said: Kytiara said: Interesting thread going here, though it would be nice if a few contributors could cool their heads enough to keep it civil. In any case, concerning when new consoles might come out. One thing you need to consider is the cost of development. From all reports, sony dumped billions of dollars into the development of the PS3. Who knows how much microsoft has dumped into xbox360, but I would assume that they still haven't broken even yet (even if they are making money now, they still have to make up for all the money on development and on selling the console below cost...). On the other hand, Nintendo is selling the Wii at a profit, in fact they've always sold their consoles at a profit, though it's probably because they don't have the deep pockets that sony or M$ do. So what this tells me, from a business perspective, is that Nintendo will break even on the development costs long before either of the other two. Once they've broken even and are actually making positive income on the wii, they can start dumping money into future development. Sony on the other hand has a very very long way to go before they break even, and every console they sell puts them deeper into the hole, instead of digging them out. It would be a pretty poor business decision to start developing a new multi-billion dollar console before the previous one is even paid off. Microsoft did it once, but I doubt even Billy is willing to dump millions into a business that never makes money. Anyway, I bring this up because it puts a limit on how soon Sony (or the other two) can develop the next systems. I could be wrong I guess (I'm not a Sony exec) but I can't see them starting development on ps4 at least for several years (at least not serious development).  I doubt Sony shareholders would approve...   So you are saying that Sony is leaving console business after PS3, if it does not break even? There is no future really for PS3 after next gen release if PS3 doesnt sell more than its competitors. Well why not exiting, they are expanding their games development department, so SCE could easilly just make games.

No, I didn't say anyplace that they were leaving this business.  I said that the amount of money they've sunken into the PS3 will be a limiting factor on WHEN they can produce their next console.  You know, if people jump to conclusions about the simplest of comments, these discussions will go no-where.  Sony is a publically traded company.  They have share holders that require Sony to make money and any big business does not survive by pissing off their shareholders with very large losses year after year.  They also don't have the big endless pockets that microsoft does to just keep bleeding money with the hope that it'll reap a profit 10 years down the road.  All I'm saying is that I don't see sony developing a new console until they are at the very least on the road to paying off this one which I would expect is several years away(yes this is my opinion, not fact).

I expect that the PS3 will eventually become profitable, or at least break even overall, which might be all that sony requires.  Will it matter greatly to them if they don't actually make any money wiht the ps3 as long as they break even and it ushers in BR?  Probably not, because they're relying on BR royalties to bring in some mad cash too.  But, if I'm wrong and the PS3 totally flops, do you think they can convince the people footing the bill to hand over another 2-3 billion to develop PS4?

Just so it doesn't look like I've totally derailed the thread, how this pertains to the wii being outdated by 2011 is that whether it is outdated or not, and I don't like that term since it implies that more realistic graphics are inherantly more advanced (which I don't agree with), because the Wii is immediately profitable nintendo can start developing a new console quickly.  They aren't as big as Sony for sure, but Sony is also not just a games company.  I haven't looked, but I doubt that sony's console department is that much bigger than Nintendo overall.  So while in my opinion the PS3 is stuck in a long life cycle, the wii can be replaced 4-5 years down the road, most likely before sony can respond with a new console of their own.  Nintendo has never said they are never going to push the graphics up, they said this time it wasn't their focus.  I would predict a new nintendo with similar or better graphics than the ps3 in 2011/2012.  Based on Microsofts past two consoles, I'd expect a newer console from them around the same time, maybe a bit later since they've invested a lot of money into xbox360 as well.  I don't expect another sony console until 2013/2014 (unless it completely takes off and starts printing money...).