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The Magicbox Million Seller Updated (Japan)

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Magicbox Million Seller Updated (Japan)

A quick check of http://www.the-magicbox.com/topten2.htm#ListMillions includes updated information on Japanese million selling games. The Nintendo DS has 16 (14 made by Nintendo) - not a bad total for just over two years (7 a year or so..). Capcom's smash hits Monster Hunter 1-2 for PSP have not been added yet, since sales are approximately 900k-950k for each. Wii already has 1 officially over a million (Wii Sports), with Wii Play set to pass 1 million officially next week. Already, that would give Wii more million sellers in Japan than GameCube. Additionally, in it's time on the market, the original Game Boy (lifetime of say 1989 to 2001) had 26 games to sell a million+ (18 made by Nintendo). If Nintendo keeps supporting the Nintendo DS for another 18 months- 3 years it seems likely that the portable will have more million sellers than the original Game Boy. Additionally, Wii could end up with more million sellers than the N64 or SNES (11 and 10 respectively). With Wii Sports, Wii Play already at the threshold, the new games that could sell over a million to be released this year are Big Brain Academy, Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Brothers Brawl, Wii Health, Wii Music, Dragon Quest Swords, Mario Party 8. Of these seven, I suspect at least 2, and as many as 5 will sell over a million copies, giving Wii 4-7 multi platnum sellers by the end of 2007. Any guesses on first PSP game to sell a million (MH2 is at 900k after two weeks..but the original is at like 950k...)? First PS3 game? Number of million selling Wii games by the end of 07' in Japan? What I don't understand is how Wii has more million selling games than GameCube already in Japan. Pikmin, Super Mario Sunshine, Tales of Symphonia, Crystal Chronicles and a few more seemed great fits for the Japanese audience (for reference..compare DS Pokemon to GC Pokemon...or Animal Crossing DS to GC Animal Crossing.



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GC was overshadowed by PS2 for games so even its big hits failed to sell all that great. The DS and Wii don't have that problem and will have bigger sellers much like the N64, SNES and GB series enjoyed. MHP2 will be the first PSP million seller but it will take a few more weeks to be official. The DS will surpass the GB series in total million sellers. The Wii will garner at least 6 million sellers in Japan. The real question is can Nintendo get some more 3rd party million sellers? If they can balance the ratio of 1st party to 3rd party million sellers, both systems will set new records by a long shot.



Care to name your 6 million sellers for Japan? I say Wii Sports, Wii Play, Mario Party 8 (late May), Super Smash Brothers Brawl (Aug), Wii Health Pack (July), Dragon Quest Swords (June) and Wii Music (Sept) sell over a million by the end of 2007. I think Super Mario Galaxy sells in the 600,000-800,000 range this year (guessing an October-November release).



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

That was the folly of the GC - the top selling game in Japan was SSB, and that only sold 1.4m :P The Wii will do in 6 months what the GC couldn't in 6 years... Its hard to know what Wii titles will hit a mill - not sure about MP8 or DQS - although they will both sell really well. Not sure about Wii music as well? Brain Training (or whatever) I think has a good chance.



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Wii sports and Wii play are both going to be over million sellers. I would think super smash brothers brawl and super mario galaxy to both be million sellers as well. What do you think about super paper mario? How do you think that will sell?? Edit: I think super paper mario is going to sell REALLY well. It reminds me of New Super Mario Bros because in all the screen shots of the game I keep seeing level 1.2 from super mario bros. Japan loved New Super Mario Bros so why not super paper mario?



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If Wii is like the SNES (the game is somewhat similar to Super Mario RPG from Square and Nintendo) in Japan, I think Super Paper Mario could sell just over a million copies. But I think the userbase will be too small when it comes out, and the game will drop off the face of the Earth after two months or so. I'd expect sales of 350k to 750k. 250k is a bomb for Super Paper Mario. 900,000 to 1,100,000 is a huge hit.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

I hope it breaks 1 million. The game looks interesting and I don't think anyone has ever attempted what they are doing in this game (switching between 2d and 3d). Hopefully it will sell well and encourage game developers to try new and innovative things.



So do I, the ideas in the game are interesting. But I don't think it will. Look at the tie ratio in Japan for Wii - it is just over 2.0 games/console. That essentially means 2/3 to 7/10 Wii owners have Wii Sports and Wii Pay. About a 1/3 who don't have one of the two games probably bought Zelda. That leaves Warioware, DBZ, Excite Truck and a few others to compete for the extra 1/6 or so of a game sold/Wii. Fire Emblem, Naruto are the bumps until mid March in software...then Sonic comes out in Japan in March...then Paper Mario. Wii seems to have four types of game sales in Japan by the end of 2007. 1) Huge sellers of non-traditional styles (1 mil+) Wii Sports, Wii Play 2) Great Sales for simpler traditional games 600k-1 million (Paper Mario I think) 3) Profitable sales of big name, complex games 300k-600k (Zelda) 4) Niche sales (under 150k) Fire Emblem, Naruto, DBZ, Trauma Center, Elebits... The question is what games fall into what categories. The top category is worth like a 40k hardware boost per week. Next category down is worth like 30k hardware boost per week. Then you get into a one time 20k boost for category three...and then anywhere from no boost to a 10k one time boost for category four. Right now, Zelda, Warioware, Wii Play, Wii Sports are enough. The question will be if hardware sales start going up again (by alot) when Super Paper Mario comes out. If Wii hardware sells 100k-120k when Paper Mario comes out the game I think will be a cat 1 or cat 2 game. Cat 3 would be 80-100k in hardware sales. My concern is that the Super Mario Galaxy game will be in cat 2 or cat 3.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

A couple more potential million sellers for the Wii (will come out eventually): - Animal Crossing Wii - Nintendogs Wii (a certain!) - Mario Kart Wii ("") I also just stumbled across this: "Pachinko Wii Game With Online Hitting Japan Soon" http://www.gametab.com/news/837510/ One interesting thing, is that Sega not only have online play support - they *also* have Mii support. So much for 3rd-parties not having access to online or Mii specs (mind you, this IS a Japanese developer - probably 6months ahead of western Wii developers).



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We won't be able to measure the "moving hardware" factor until you can actually find the hardware on the shelves in reliable numbers, and that doesn't seem to be happening at least this month, maybe not even next month either. Edit : Reffering to the Wii in Japan.



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