we still have at least 5 years....... every1 could just ignore all nintendo stuff and just buy microsoft products and the 360 will win. it really doesnt matter. ps4 ftw lol

I expect the next XBox will be released in 2010 or 2011 and the PS4 (and Nintendo's next system) will be released one year after that; and we're probably looking at a 2010 or 2011 release for Nintendo's next handheld, and the PSP2 (if there is one). What this means is the massive number of consoles on the market and the excitement about "Next Generation" systems will hurt the sales of all consoles; and (typically) the non-dominant consoles will be disproportionately hurt.

With this in mind, Sony (pretty much) has to start outselling the XBox 360 by 2 to 2.5 Million units per year in order to end up in a tied position by the end of the generation ... Which is possible, but unlikely given their performance over the past few years.

The problem with the theory is that you are assuming the next generation of 360 will follow the same path they did with the original XBox.  Rumours have talked that the next rev of 360 may be forward compatible, and if it is, that allows them to continue selling the current 360 on the low side and a higher end one for the gamers who want more...

If Sony beat MS to market with PS4, they will again discredit themselves.  The PS3 is supposed to last 10 years.  Almost all 360 owners know that is not a reality for the 360.  People (like me) who bought expensive PS3's are going to be very unwilling to buy an expensive PS4.  Sony has a lot of work to do, to convince me that a PS4 is going to be worth my while.  the PS3 has got the short end of the stick almost all this entire generation so far on multiplatform games.  The 1st party exclusives are the only things breathing life into the PS3 outside of MGS4.

I second my previous opinion about what MAY and WILL happen...

- PS3 WILL sell more than 2008 in 2009.
- PS3 MAY sell more than 360 in 2009 (or vice versa). So the gap MAY close (depending on the price points and games lineup).
- PS3 WILL not sell more than wii (So the gap with Wii will increase).
- WII and 360 may sell more than 2008 in 2009. However, the chances that 360 will sell more (than 2008) is greater than Wii selling more.

- Next Generation consoles WILL not be released untill at least one year after both hardware and software sales decrease compared to previous year. This is a "necessary", not a "sufficient" condition. Let me explain.

With this logic, we know that no next gen console will be released in 2010 because the hardware and software sales for all consoles have increased in 2008. If for example, both hardware and software sales of 360 decrease in 2009, we can expect the next gen 360 in 2011 as earliest. We wont see a PS4 till 2012 at least since we expect PS3 sales to be certainly higher than 2008. (So the sales may decrease only in 2010 and we need another year). As I said this is not a sufficient condition though cos Next Wii will probably wont hit so soon because its already the market leader and highly profit both on hardware and software. It may need one than one consequtive year for a nextgen wii unless the nextgen wii is fully compatible with the current wii and will not disrupt the current wii market.

Forward compatibility looks like a bad idea to me. This means developers will have to target and test their games for two platforms. On each platform, they may have to target and test the different models (in 360's case, Arcade and non-Arcade due to the hard drive difference).

Furthermore, it gets harder (or impossible) to take advantage of new features when targeting two separate platforms with different features. If the next MS console has motion controls, how to make games that target both? If the nextbox uses Blu-Ray, how will the games be distributed to 360 users?

I'm thinking those rumors stem from the idea that Microsoft wants to make consoles like PCs. While that makes sense on a superficial sense, I wouldn't bet Microsoft will go that way. The Wii's success shows that's not what people want.

It does have a chance, a lot of crazy unpredictable things have happened this gen. Not to mention we're only halfway through. And I see a massive sales increase for the PS3 in Japan this year, the 1 region where the Xbox 360 just can't challenge it.

Edited:

I second my previous opinion about what MAY and WILL happen...

- PS3 WILL sell more than 2008 in 2009.
- PS3 MAY sell more than 360 in 2009 (or vice versa). So the gap MAY close (depending on the price points and games lineup).
- PS3 WILL not sell more than wii (So the gap with Wii will increase).
- WII and 360 may sell more than 2008 in 2009. However, the chances that 360 will sell more (than 2008) is greater than Wii selling more.

- Next Generation consoles WILL not be released untill at least one year after both hardware and software sales decrease compared to previous year. This is a "necessary", not a "sufficient" condition. Let me explain.

With this logic, we know that no next gen console will be released in 2010 because the hardware and software sales for all consoles have increased in 2008. If for example, both hardware and software sales of 360 decrease in 2009, we can expect the next gen 360 in 2011 as earliest. We wont see a PS4 till 2012 at least since we expect PS3 sales to be certainly higher than 2008. (So the sales may decrease only in 2010 and we need another year). As I said this is not a sufficient condition though cos Next Wii will probably wont hit so soon because its already the market leader and highly profitable both on hardware and software. It may need more than one consequtive year for a nextgen wii unless the nextgen wii is fully compatible with the current wii and will not disrupt the current wii market.

Yes PS3 still has a chance at 2nd. But its not a sure thing - in fact far from it.

I... must... not... like... this... game... Reviewers'... opinions... are... more... important... than... mine.

 

Just wait until ____ is released.
And the price is dropped to ____.
Plus, don't forget about the ___ year lifecycle.