Companies don't care which product they sell. What customers want is automatically interesting. They care about production costs (Which are perhaps 1$ more for the BluRay disc?) and how much they can get from customers in total. If people have BluRay players and they can make more money selling the discs cheaply (because more people buy the cheaper one) they will sell them BluRay discs. At the moment they obviously still try to milk the early adopters. But the more players are sold, the smaller the price difference will be. Companies will sell you BluRay discs, DVD, tapes or their grandmother. It depends on what the consumers want and how much money they can make by multiplying number of sales * profit per sale.




??? A BluRay disc holds 3h video on a single layer or 6h video on a double layer disc in pixel- perfect 1080p video, with Dolby-Digital 7.1 sound. What quantum leap are you talking about? That's the end, there is no need for something "better", unless someone sells millions of stereoscopic 3D 4096p displays in the next years. Which will not happen. The TVs are the limiting factor here and they will be 1080p at best for the next decade. Unless you have a cinema that's all you need. No "quantum leap" * sorry.
Downloadable content as a more convenient transportation method is another method. But that will also take time, because of technical but even more so legal problems.


* (Never understood quantum leap as an expression anyway since its possibly the smallest state change possible in the universe, ok thats off-topic)

Star Scream said: ryu1976 said: Star Scream said: ryu1976 said: PS360ForTheWin said: good stuff, @ TheBigFatJ - DVD has been on the market alot longer and has more titles and players sold, so its not a fair comparison, compare this to DVDs second xmas would be more fair, this is actually very good for blu-ray.   Is VHS vs. BetaMax a fair comparison? BD and DVD must be compared, as BD aims to replace DVD.  What's at issue is whether it will ever accomplish this.  I vote no. There are cheaper, superior media formats at BD's gate; not to mention downloadable HD content and slick upscaling DVD players. BD won the battle with HDDVD, but what is the prize?  My guess is 5-15% market share until it and DVD are replaced by a true quantum leap forward.   First, BR is already in 5-15% range, and the share is only going to get bigger. Second, studios behind Blu Ray (and that's ALL of them) are not going to endanger its future dominance with another format. They'll milk it dry and then get behind another format in 5+ years time.   As for downloadable content, for true BR quality current speeds are slow AND the GB limitations (in US) are quite unfortunate.   15% WW, huh?  Throw-up the stats, bra!   Eh, you wrote 5-15%, I used your words. I'm sure BR is in the '5-15%' bracket, ISN'T IT?

 

For 2008, I 'believe it's in the 4-6% bracket, changes monthly.  They must sell a lot of players before they can dream of the upper end of 15%...  Yes you used my words, but to say they've already fulfilled them to the fullest extent is a bit of an exageration.

good point anyway... :)

Kyros said: If the BluRay earns less money than the DVD it is no longer interesting! Companies don't care which product they sell. What customers want is automatically interesting. They care about production costs (Which are perhaps 1$ more for the BluRay disc?) and how much they can get from customers in total. If people have BluRay players and they can make more money selling the discs cheaply (because more people buy the cheaper one) they will sell them BluRay discs. At the moment they obviously still try to milk the early adopters. But the more players are sold, the smaller the price difference will be. Companies will sell you BluRay discs, DVD, tapes or their grandmother. It depends on what the consumers want and how much money they can make by multiplying number of sales * profit per sale. it and DVD are replaced by a true quantum leap forward. ??? A BluRay disc holds 3h video on a single layer or 6h video on a double layer disc in pixel- perfect 1080p video, with Dolby-Digital 7.1 sound. What quantum leap are you talking about? That's the end, there is no need for something "better", unless someone sells millions of stereoscopic 3D 4096p displays in the next years. Which will not happen. The TVs are the limiting factor here and they will be 1080p at best for the next decade. Unless you have a cinema that's all you need. No "quantum leap" * sorry. Downloadable content as a more convenient transportation method is another method. But that will also take time, because of technical but even more so legal problems. * (Never understood quantum leap as an expression anyway since its possibly the smallest state change possible in the universe, ok thats off-topic)

Do you prefer 'paradigm shift?'  The point is that the delivery method for media may be as different as the change from VHS to DVD.

 

ryu1976 said: PS360ForTheWin said: good stuff, @ TheBigFatJ - DVD has been on the market alot longer and has more titles and players sold, so its not a fair comparison, compare this to DVDs second xmas would be more fair, this is actually very good for blu-ray.   Is VHS vs. BetaMax a fair comparison? BD and DVD must be compared, as BD aims to replace DVD. What's at issue is whether it will ever accomplish this. I vote no. There are cheaper, superior media formats at BD's gate; not to mention downloadable HD content and slick upscaling DVD players. BD won the battle with HDDVD, but what is the prize? My guess is 5-15% market share until it and DVD are replaced by a true quantum leap forward.

 

VHS vs. BetaMax was a great comparison for Blu-ray v. HDDVD.  Please list the cheaper/superior media formats at BD's gate. 

I know everyone here likes to predict the demise of Blu-ray, but it is the independent digital download services that are really on the brink.  They can't get decent content to compete, their access to the customer is being metered/limited by the ISP's, available technology will not support an increasing customer base, and movie studios provide extremely limited support.  Services like Hula and Netflix can only hope that they are purchased by large ISPs. 

Blu-ray is a greater advance from DVD than DVD was to VHS.  If you can't instantly notice a Blu-ray movie, then you are not watching it on a HDTV or you are not using HDMI.

 

Fancy words for downloadable content? Yes this will come, but currently and in the mid future its way overhyped. Hell even music CDs still sell 5 times better than digital downloads even though a song is 5MB and music downloads are to a big extent DRM free. Video downloads will be a big business pretty soon, but it will coexist with physical media (and here there will be no quantum leap) for a long long time.

Kyros said: If the BluRay earns less money than the DVD it is no longer interesting! Companies don't care which product they sell. What customers want is automatically interesting. They care about production costs (Which are perhaps 1$ more for the BluRay disc?) and how much they can get from customers in total. If people have BluRay players and they can make more money selling the discs cheaply (because more people buy the cheaper one) they will sell them BluRay discs. At the moment they obviously still try to milk the early adopters. But the more players are sold, the smaller the price difference will be. Companies will sell you BluRay discs, DVD, tapes or their grandmother. It depends on what the consumers want and how much money they can make by multiplying number of sales * profit per sale. it and DVD are replaced by a true quantum leap forward. ??? A BluRay disc holds 3h video on a single layer or 6h video on a double layer disc in pixel- perfect 1080p video, with Dolby-Digital 7.1 sound. What quantum leap are you talking about? That's the end, there is no need for something "better", unless someone sells millions of stereoscopic 3D 4096p displays in the next years. Which will not happen. The TVs are the limiting factor here and they will be 1080p at best for the next decade. Unless you have a cinema that's all you need. No "quantum leap" * sorry. Downloadable content as a more convenient transportation method is another method. But that will also take time, because of technical but even more so legal problems. * (Never understood quantum leap as an expression anyway since its possibly the smallest state change possible in the universe, ok thats off-topic)

 

Quantum leap is a phonemena that happens when an electron changes valency.

It moves from one orbit to another. However it never travels between the two places it merely vanishes in one and reappears in another. A quantum leap.

Thus apparently impossible leaps in science and understanding are often referred to as quantum leaps.

Digital Media will replace DVD not Blu-Ray. Blu-Ray is the laser disc of this generation. Not to mention you can buy DVD players that upscale DVDs to 1080p.

bucknasty said: Digital Media will replace DVD not Blu-Ray. Blu-Ray is the laser disc of this generation. Not to mention you can buy DVD players that upscale DVDs to 1080p.

Aren't DVD and Blu-Ray digital media? I think you ment downloadable content. You can easily stream VHS quality movies on the net and downloading those usually doesn't take longer than hour. And as you know bandwidth is improving all the time not downgrading so eventually we will be able to stream even 1080p movies. If customers are happy with DVD:s, they might be happy with DC too.

Heh, quatum leap... The one I hate more is when someone says that something is light years away/ahead of something. :D

I know . But it is the smallest change that happens in the universe (at least I think so). So I have never understood why it is used as an analogy for radical change.

Deneidez said: bucknasty said: Digital Media will replace DVD not Blu-Ray. Blu-Ray is the laser disc of this generation. Not to mention you can buy DVD players that upscale DVDs to 1080p. Aren't DVD and Blu-Ray digital media? I think you ment downloadable content. You can easily stream VHS quality movies on the net and downloading those usually doesn't take longer than hour. And as you know bandwidth is improving all the time not downgrading so eventually we will be able to stream even 1080p movies. If customers are happy with DVD:s, they might be happy with DC too. Heh, quatum leap... The one I hate more is when someone says that something is light years away/ahead of something. :D

Speaking from the UK, I reckon BluRay still has a good shout of becoming huge.

Firstly, downloadable content is still lightyears away from 1080p content.  Even HD TV is still a huge way away from becoming a standard.  Even the UK's broadcast bandwidth cannot cope with the supposed HD 1080p content coming it's way.  And with the UK going entirely Digital by 2012 (could be 2011), this digital content isn't even 720p it's good old 480p or the european PAL format digitised.  Even internet connections aren't up to it.  In my area we cannot get more than 2Mb and even at our work it's only a 1Mb dedicated line.  Yes it would be great to get 50Mb+, but it's not going to happen for a good number of years.

Secondly, BluRay players have now broken the £100 barrier.  Bush has a BR player on the market at £98, which is a huge step in the right direction.  Once the BR film prices start coming down to respectable levels, then we will see more sales as well.

Also, don't forget that DVD prices are now at a really cheap level.  In the UK, new films are generally £10 and can be picked up for £5-£7 after only a few months.  And the worldwide recession won't help sales, but it's defintely heading in the right direction.

IMHO, downloadable content is still a long way away, and realistically, BluRay is the only achievable method of seeing high definition movies at the moment.