“The Wii has been able to outsell Xbox 360 and PS3 combined in recent months in the U.S., but Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says it could sell even more per month thanks to a slightly stronger dollar.”

Still he thinks Nintendo will release the Wii2 in the two coming years…. I don’t get this guy :P

The Wii will go to one milljon a month i think. Not only because the dollar. But even more for the new games for it. Call of Duty: World at War, Pikmin 3, Wario Land Shake.

The fortune Teller Pachter strikes again...

Okay, Nintendo sells roughly 175k Wii units in "Others" per week currently.

That means roughly 787.5k, we can go with 800k units average a month (4,5 weeks).

Japan accounts for roughly 200k units a month currently, maybe 225k.

All in all roughly 1 million units a month for Japan and "Others" combined.

That means there are roughly 800,000 units left for the Americas each month. The Wii averaged around 700k units in the US alone, 100k units for the rest of America a month seems reasonable. (Of course numbers can vary by 100k or so.)

All in all the numbers make perfect sense so far and if we take into account the increase in production from 1.8 million units to 2.3 million units a month (which is half a million) Pachters prediction makes sense, they could very well increase US shipments to 1 million units a month.

Of course we have to take stockpiling into account. Nintendo currently pumps out every single wii unit they produce, so upping US shipments by 300k units a month would mean there are only 200k units left a month for stockpiling.

Now they can only stockpile consoles until October because in November they´ll need those units again already.

August, September, October: three months a 200k units which means 600k units stockpiled + 4.6 million consoles produced in November + December anyways, that brings us to 5.2 million units for November + December.

Now, if I used our hardware table correctly, the Wii sold more than 6 million units during the November - December period last year so 5.2 million units is clearly too low.

I´d expect them to have at least 6 million units available this Christmas season (Nov + Dec). 4.6 million consoles produced in those two months means they need roughly 1.4 million units of stockpiled consoles in 3 months, which is 500k units a month... which is roughly the same as the increase in production.

So if I didn´t use our hardware table wrong I´d say we won´t see a large increase in Wii sales in the US starting August because they need those extra units to be stockpiled.

Edit: I would expect them to have a bit more units left in November-December, though. I guess just like last year, they´ll cut back some shipments during late September, early October so we´ll see slightly higher sales. Additionally they could get more consoles out there like they did last year if they use air shipping again. All in all I´d expect them to have 6.5 million units available for November-December, roughly 400k units more than last year.

Huh?  You do realize that analysts like Pachter, corporate officies, etc...typicaly only refer to the market they are based in?

Why would Patch comment on markets he doesn't know?  He works in the US, and therefore comments on the US market.  Europe is clearly more complicated and because it is many smaller countries, it will require more analysis.  Patcher has a hard enough time getting anything remotely accurate in America.

Still, the Wii selling a million units a months is a foregone conclusion.  It should be easy.

My exact sentiment lol. But 1M is really pushing it except Oprah gives them out for free on her show!

They're already selling 725K/month for three months going.  And the Wii is sold out everywhere with no known cap to the demand.  And you think they can't do another 275K/month?

^ He probably thinks the weekly data from VGC expresses monthly numbers.

NPD data is monthy
VGC is weekly you can get monthly though.

That's just mean... he does read this site you know.