Unless market inertia suddenly decides it wants to stop existing, yes, it will.

I honestly think it will. It's the fastest selling console in history and has an expanded audience. Only time will tell, though.

err. no, it might but right now not a chance.

no, simply due to its life span. ps2s are still selling 8 years into its life.i think its at 140 million and still going.i believe the wii wont last as long, mainly because motion sensing gaming is new and not for everyone.the ps2 is a traditional gaming platform.therefore, most people are familiar with the controlls and controller.it has more appeal.

I'm pretty sure it will.

Says the person who predicts the Wii will only sell 3 million consoles the rest of the year. ;-]

PS2 was at 129m+ shipped through March 2008 and is now at 131m or so.

It took 5 years 9 months to reach 100m shipped.

DS will reach 100m shipped in 4 years 6 months.

Wii is tracking than DS, which is tracking faster than PS2.

Wii is more expensive than PS2 was by this point in its life. So if you believe as Sony fans that PS3 will top 360 when selling less at the moment but costing more, you have to be consistent and believe Wii will sell alot more than PS2 since it is outpacing it while costing more.

Now, you could argue that most of the 20 months PS2 was more expensive than Wii...$300 to $250 but Wii is outpacing PS2 by more than 20% in most regions which is what the price advantage would mean overall. But PS2 never reached Wii levels even in its peak which was immediately after it became $200 in 2002.

The best hope for PS2 is the long tail...but Nintendo's top platforms have it too:

NES did 34m in the Americas and was still readily available at retailers through the mid 90s despite launching in the mid 80s. SNES & Genesis were similar 1991-2000 and 1989-1999 lifespans, its just the peaks were so much lower than PS1/PS2/GB that we don't think of those last sales gasps in 1997-2000 as a long tail.

Depends when Ninty's new console comes out. Still thinking no though.

Yes

I say it depends.

If my estimates are correct, the Wii will end this year around 40m (selling 1m per month, plus another 4-5 for the holidays).

In 2009, it should be between 60-70m, maybe more depending on the increase in production.

Add on about 25-30m more in 2010, and you have the Wii in striking distance of the PS2 after 5 years.

BUT...

Will the Wii last longer than 5 years before the Wii2 hits? That's the rub.

I think the Wii can definately best the PS2 if given a full 7 year run, but I am not convinced that will happen.