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Forums - Sales Discussion - Comparing Weakest Monthly USA sales to December Sales in a console's Year 1

I'm creating this thread to give an idea about what we might expect for December based on 2001 data for PS2 (when it was available for one year), and 2002 for GC & Xbox.  For the sake of comparison, I am including 360 with Wii & PS3 even though it had it's first full year last year.

In 2001..PS2's December sales were 8x greater than the weakest monthly sales.

In 2002...GC's December sales were 10x greater than the weakest monthly sales.

In 2002 Xbox's December sales were 13x greater than the weakest monthly sales.

Going by the weakest monthly sales for Wii, PS3, and 360 that would mean, with Wii using the PS2 rate, 360 using the Xbox rate, and PS3 using the GC rate, we would arrive at NPD December figures like this:

Wii - 2,072,000 (259k x 8)

360 - 2,015,000 (155k x 13)

PS3 - 820,000 (82k x 10)

With the year still young, it is possible that all three consoles could set new lows, but for now, I would expect those figures to be in the ballpark, even though the rate won't hold up exactly as it did last generation.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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I had picked this separately.

console - NA (WW)
wii - 1.2m (3.2)
360 - 750k (1.6)
PS3 - 650k (2)



interesting topic.

So is that xbox number supposed to be 13 at the top? or is the 360 number supposed to be multiplied by 12 



Isn't 259k the weekly sales not the monthly sales or did you use weekly sales in your analysis. Just curious because you say PS2's December (Month) sales are 8x greater than the weakest (Month) sales but then use 259k which I thought the Wii did in a good week. Might of completly missed something though just noticed it at a glance.



259k is the Wii's sales for the weakest USA month.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Around the Network

Sorry just misread like I thought on my part missed the titles intial claim of U.S. month and assumed world.



TheSource said:

In 2002 Xbox's December sales were 12x greater than the weakest monthly sales.

Going by the weakest monthly sales for Wii, PS3, and 360 that would mean, with Wii using the PS2 rate, 360 using the Xbox rate, and PS3 using the GC rate, we would arrive at NPD December figures like this:

Wii - 2,072,000 (259k x 8)

360 - 1,860,000 (155k x 12)

PS3 - 820,000 (82k x 10)


fixed your error. ;) 360 less than 2m.



WiiFit will be 2008 #1 selling game in NORTH AMERICA!  
End of '08 Predictions: Wii - 48m X360 - 25m  PS3 - 19m
Wii monthly NA sales will top 400k every month in '08. *Jan sales ruined it. Grrrr!*
WiiFit will top 1m in sales in its first month of release in North America.
MGS4 will NOT be released in '08. *Darn it!* FF13 will NOT be released in '08.
Rockband Wii will top 600k in first month sales in North America.
WiiFit will pass the PS3 WW sales by Xmas '09.

I would bet:
Wii - 1.700.000
X360 - 1.450.000
PS3 - 800.000



It sounds good when you say "For the People", but what you really want is... a stronger army than the Knights, and the evil power to control the people.

(Ramza Beoulve, Final Fantasy Tactics)

Actually, both extrapolations should have been x13, not by x12 revolutions, so that was the error..still good eye.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Why did you use the 8x from PS2 for Wii and the 10x from Gamecube for PS3?

Btw, were any of those consoles supply constrained in those lowest months? Cause that could give have a big influence on the factor you end up using.