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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 33 11.54%
 
First half of 2023 24 8.39%
 
Second half of 2023 35 12.24%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.24%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.59%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.45%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.75%
 
Later than above 2 0.70%
 
Never 149 52.10%
 
Total:286
yo33331 said:

One interesting fact is there is much close calls with nintendo and sony's consoles and always nintendo are behind when they are close to reaching some of the sony's consoles numbers. Examples:
Wii vs PS1 - 101.6M vs 102.5M
DS vs PS2 - 154M vs 158M
3DS vs PSP - 75M vs 82M
Wii U vs Vita - 14M vs 16M

Lmao what the heck is this? 

You can easily switch this to Wii vs PS3, DS vs PSP, and Vita vs 3DS and have different outcomes. 



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xl-klaudkil said:
I remembered people thought the wii could beat the ps2 because of its monster sales.

Lets just wait and see if the switch can keep selling as high as its doing now for another 3 years.

This.  People are constantly overestimating Nintendo's legs for their consoles, while underestimating Sony's.  I also remember the people who said the PS4 was never going to beat the Wii, even though 2 out of 3 of Sony's previous systems did.  And the one that didn't came in a pretty close 2nd in that same gen with the Wii, 101.6M vs 87.4M.  And that was the gen they utterly screwed up.  Then, we had it won't hit 110M, which it will by the end of this quarter.  And now, it's "it won't hit 120M," even though it is a mere 12M away from that number, now. 

Now, I can definitely see Switch hitting 100M, give or take 10M.  But, it's not going to hit 125M, like the PS4 will most likely do.  I mean, the PS4 looks to be on track to sell 120M even without a price cut.  Give it one or two more, I can definitely see it hitting 125M-130M. 

I would just like to know what is going to keep the Switch selling ~20M every year for the next 4 years to get it to that number.  By 2021, all of Nintendo's big hitters will be out.  It will be receiving fewer AA and AAA ports thanks to those teams focusing on the newer systems.  Speaking of which, the novelty of being the new toy on the block will have completely worn off, as well.  And it will have already had a $199 SKU for over a year, pushing sales for those not willing to pay $299, so a price cut will have less of an impact by then than it would for the PS4.



Shadow1980 said:
Amnesia said:

If this Switch 2 belongs too the 9th for you, this means that Nintendo kills the current Switch, at best this Switch 2 can be retro compatible but it will be a really different machine with specific games not usable on the current Switch/Lite

Well, yeah, they'll drop support for the Switch at some point. By the end of this year, the Switch will be close to four years old. Given the usual life cycle for Nintendo consoles, I imagine they'll start winding things down for the Switch within the next two years, with the Switch 2 (assuming that's what their next-gen system will be) coming out no later than Nov. 2023. That's closer to the launch of the PS5 & XSX than the Switch's launch was to that of the PS4 & XBO.

I think the same, but I see the next 9th gen hybrid system of Nintendo (a sort of Switch but with the power of a PS4(Pro)), for Nov 2022 instead, which let a comfortable room for a Switch Pro this year running games at higher resolution and framerate, but it will be still quite far from base X1 and PS4 in term of power.



yo33331 said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Lmao what the heck is this? 

You can easily switch this to Wii vs PS3, DS vs PSP, and Vita vs 3DS and have different outcomes. 

I added aditional information in the post about these examples. The same can't be done for nintendo with so close numbers. When we have so close wars like these always sony's console had won. That is what I am trying to say. There isn't close sony console under any of the nintendo consoles.

You're comparing consoles that weren't in the same generation to fit some odd narrative. I guess if it entertains you... 



Is there a Nintendo console that didn't die hard in its last years?



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shikamaru317 said:

I'm going to say never. PS4 will almost certainly hit 120m, possibly even 125-130m depending on price cuts and game support after PS5 releases. I doubt Switch will reach that high, I suspect that Nintendo will release Switch 2 by Holiday 2022 at the latest, and I just can't see Switch selling that much before then, it would have to pull off an average of 25m a year in 2020, 2021, and 2022 in order to hit 125m. Switch passing PS4 is not impossible, especially if Switch 2 is 2023 rather than 2022, or if they manage to get Switch Lite down to maybe $120 and Switch down to $200 by Holiday 2021, but never is a safer bet imo. 

You have a lot of explanning to do on why you think sales drop to 0 when a successor releases. And following that logic, why you don't expect the ps4 to stop selling the moment ps5 shows up. I expect the switch to be over 110m by dec 31 2022 and it won't magically stop selling because it's successor just came out.

Last edited by Nu-13 - on 11 January 2020

Nu-13 said:
Amnesia said:

Could you just remind me what are gen 8-9 and 10 for you guys ?

8th gen: 3ds, vita, wii u, ps4, x1

9th gen: switch

10th gen: ps5, xsx, switch 2

That doesn't make sense to me. Why does Switch get its own gen? With that logic Switch 2 will need to be in gen 11 by itself. Did Dreamcast get a gen all to itself?

Switch is still part of gen 8. It came out in the middle of gen 8 and most of its lifetime before being replaced will be while only other gen 8 systems are on the market.

Switch 2 and PS5 and XS will be gen 9.



I said never. Cuz I think PS4 is gonna end up between 120-125 million, while Switch will end up in the 110-120 million range.



vivster said:
Is there a Nintendo console that didn't die hard in its last years?

Technically there isn't any console ever to not die hard in it's last years. And absolute numbers are what matters anyway.



Slownenberg said:
Nu-13 said:

8th gen: 3ds, vita, wii u, ps4, x1

9th gen: switch

10th gen: ps5, xsx, switch 2

That doesn't make sense to me. Why does Switch get its own gen? With that logic Switch 2 will need to be in gen 11 by itself. Did Dreamcast get a gen all to itself?

Switch is still part of gen 8. It came out in the middle of gen 8 and most of its lifetime before being replaced will be while only other gen 8 systems are on the market.

Switch 2 and PS5 and XS will be gen 9.

Did it take like 4 years for us to see another system after the dreamcast?

Your second paragraph is priceless because even if the part about coming in the middle was true or the last part had any relevance to generations, it would mean the dreamcast was 5th gen. Both switch and dreamcast released 4 years after the start of previous gen. A little earlier than usual but not in the middle of anything. Since time of release is all that matters in this subject, that makes the dreamcast a 6th gen, switch a 9th gen, and ps5/xsx/switch 2 10th gen. How long existing consoles over/understay their welcome is completely irrelevant.