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November NPD 2018 Thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

Bandorr said:

Reading this it sounds like PS4 "won" NPD.
More importantly it makes the 24th month - two years - that Xbox has "won" an NPD.
With the last one being November of 2016.

I find that interesting because I would have guessed(and probably did actually) that wouldn't happen. I expected the switch and ps4 to "steal" from each other having so many niche(ish) games in common. Instead it seems they actually are amplifying each other.

Instead of splitting the vote so to speak, they are multiplying each other. Instead of say going from 1.00 to .75, they are instead both at 1.25. Or at least that is how it feels.

I just didn't see that happening.

WOW so 2 years and no NPD win for xbox in it's strongest territory. That's incredible. I wonder when it wins an NPD again. 



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zorg1000 said:


Playstation 4 Pro-Nov 2016

Nintendo Switch-March 2017

Xbox One X-Nov 2017

Switch released right in between the mid-gen upgrades for PS4/XBO and they have had no noticeable effect on Switch and vice versa.

 

PS5/XB4 are likely coming in late 2020 which is ~3.5 years after the Switch launch and should be right around the time Switch gets it's own mid-gen upgrade (3DS, PS4, XBO all got 3-4 years after launch).

This should help negate any potential decline caused by the new PS/XB consoles.

But its not the same thing.

Those Mid gen upgrades you speak of are really just more of the same thing. Same old 3/4 year old consoles under the hood. Same library and family of games of which the NS also shared.

The media circus around a new console spearheading a new generation is a lot bigger than what was around upgraded consoles in an already 3+ year old generation. And there will be two of them. 

Between the PS4 and XB1 they had 7M+ (supply constrained) sales in their first 6 weeks. Those upgrades probably achieved less than 2M sales combined in their  first 6 weeks if aligned. Very different thing.

I dont think a mid gen upgrade can in anyway shape or form be compared to new hardware. Much less two of them. Like the whole industry/media will be talking about everything PS5/XB4 related for a big chunk of 2020. This is akin to games shifting their release date so they don't launch around games like RDR2 even if they are very different games. 



Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:


Playstation 4 Pro-Nov 2016

Nintendo Switch-March 2017

Xbox One X-Nov 2017

Switch released right in between the mid-gen upgrades for PS4/XBO and they have had no noticeable effect on Switch and vice versa.

 

PS5/XB4 are likely coming in late 2020 which is ~3.5 years after the Switch launch and should be right around the time Switch gets it's own mid-gen upgrade (3DS, PS4, XBO all got 3-4 years after launch).

This should help negate any potential decline caused by the new PS/XB consoles.

But its not the same thing.

Those Mid gen upgrades you speak of are really just more of the same thing. Same old 3/4 year old consoles under the hood. Same library and family of games of which the NS also shared.

The media circus around a new console spearheading a new generation is a lot bigger than what was around upgraded consoles in an already 3+ year old generation. And there will be two of them. 

Between the PS4 and XB1 they had 7M+ (supply constrained) sales in their first 6 weeks. Those upgrades probably achieved less than 2M sales combined in their  first 6 weeks if aligned. Very different thing.

I dont think a mid gen upgrade can in anyway shape or form be compared to new hardware. Much less two of them. Like the whole industry/media will be talking about everything PS5/XB4 related for a big chunk of 2020. This is akin to games shifting their release date so they don't launch around games like RDR2 even if they are very different games. 

I agree that the new consoles will obviously be a much bigger deal than the mid-gen upgrades but this is just an example of history repeating itself.

About two years ago when Switch was revealed, it was a common argument that the new upgrades would keep mindshare away from Switch and on top of that big 3rd party titles releasing around its launch like Resident Evil 7, For Honor, Ghost Recon Wildlands, Mass Effect Andromeda & Injustice 2 were all skipping it and that would hurt it because Nintendo games alone cant make a system succeed.

 

These are the exact same arguments that are being used for why Switch sales will suffer once PS5/XB4 release.



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RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes, so far it doesn't seem like they are competing for the same costumers.

There is definitely overlap between Switch and PS4 ownership. The catch is that a PS4 purchase doesn't rule out a Switch purchase like it rules out an Xbox One purchase. And vice versa, a Switch purchase doesn't rule out the purchase of either a PS4 or Xbox One.

That's something that people should keep in mind when they wonder if the next PS and Xbox consoles will impact Switch negatively. Hint: They won't.

There is some overlap between PS4 & XBO customers as well. Less than the overlap between Switch and PS4 or XBO owners since Nintendo is offering a considerably different product, but it's still there. There is evidence to suggest that a non-trivial number of 360 owners also had a PS3 and vice versa (a Nielsen survey from early 2015 indicated that about 20% of PS4 owners and 16% of XBO owners at the time owned both a PS3 and a 360 at some point in the previous generation), and there's no reason to think that has changed. And I know it's anecdotal, but I and several avid gamers I know own both an XBO and a PS4. The market for "conventional" consoles isn't purely a zero-sum game.

 

Intrinsic said:

I wouldnt go as far as say impact switch negatively but the switch doesn't exist in a bubble.

Mindshare and media coverage is also very important. And for most of 2020 all that any media publication would be talking about will be the PS5 and XB4. Their renewed marketing push for their new upcoming consoles will dominate TV and ads. Those will be the new "hot item" for the holidays... etc. You can't really think all that will have zero effect on the NS. This is not saying that the people that buy those new consoles won't maybe one day still buy the NS, but the focus of the conversation will change for a while come 2020.  

As I mentioned in a previous post, the release of one system in a given brand has never had an effect on sales of consoles in another brand. For example, the PS4 and XBO had no impact on Wii U sales, the 360 had no impact on PS2 sales, and, despite Sega bragging that they did what "Nintendon't," the Genesis had no obvious effect on NES sales if shipment data is any indication. The only system a brand new console has ever effected in terms of sales is the one it's replacing. Like I said, the console market is not an absolutely zero-sum game, especially in Nintendo's case as they're providing a considerably different product with the Switch.

While the PS5 & Xbox 4 will be getting a ton of buzz in 2020, I can guarantee that it won't have any measurable effect on the Switch's performance. The PS5 will only impact the PS4's sales, and the Xbox 4 will only impact the XBO's sales.



Any word about software for the month other than RDR and CoD?



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Kerotan said:
Bandorr said:

Reading this it sounds like PS4 "won" NPD.
More importantly it makes the 24th month - two years - that Xbox has "won" an NPD.
With the last one being November of 2016.

I find that interesting because I would have guessed(and probably did actually) that wouldn't happen. I expected the switch and ps4 to "steal" from each other having so many niche(ish) games in common. Instead it seems they actually are amplifying each other.

Instead of splitting the vote so to speak, they are multiplying each other. Instead of say going from 1.00 to .75, they are instead both at 1.25. Or at least that is how it feels.

I just didn't see that happening.

WOW so 2 years and no NPD win for xbox in it's strongest territory. That's incredible. I wonder when it wins an NPD again. 

I dont see nothing strange, XB1 globally is selling worse than Xbox 360 in same time period while PS4 and Switch are selling much better than PS3/360 in same time period, and XB1 in US compared to rest of world sales have quite stronger sales in any case.



Bandorr said:

Reading this it sounds like PS4 "won" NPD.
More importantly it makes the 24th month - two years - that Xbox has "won" an NPD.
With the last one being November of 2016.


I find that interesting because I would have guessed(and probably did actually) that wouldn't happen. I expected the switch and ps4 to "steal" from each other having so many niche(ish) games in common. Instead it seems they actually are amplifying each other.

Instead of splitting the vote so to speak, they are multiplying each other. Instead of say going from 1.00 to .75, they are instead both at 1.25. Or at least that is how it feels.

I just didn't see that happening.

In the grand scale of things does that really matter?

For example, when we look at YTD 2018 (Janruary to November, 11 months), that total is higher than the same time period in 2016 (Janruary to November 2016).

And Xbox won four NPD's during that 2016 period, and came dead last almost every month this year. Just putting things into perspective.

You expected PS4 and Switch to steal off each other based on niche japanese games that have little to no impact here? You serious?



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

CGI-Quality said:

I'll take off the mod coat for just a sec.

Let's look at it this way ~ Switch has breathed new life into this game. Decemeber's numbers are going to be MASSIVE for it. Period. Dot.

Realistically, 80 million is the bare minimum of final lifetime totals. Treat it like a handheld regarding sales (its docking feature is the icing). I predict that it will sell between 95 and 115 million, give or take. A bit behind the PS4, but definitely ahead of the 3DS. I want all of its doubters of 80+ million final unit totals to consider that this isn't the Wii. It shouldn't have that kind of hard drop off because the carrying weight of the Wii's particular audience are not the people jumping through hoops for Smash. These are core, dedicated fans of the series and many of them WILL buy a Switch for just this one game. The PS5/Xbox Next will have an impact, no doubt, but there's nothing currently suggesting that this thing will just taper off and crawl to 80 million and the Switch has much more pulling power than the Wii, in my eyes.

2019 will be a better indicator of long term success. Just think about all of the variables to reach your final conclusions.

Yep, nope. You predicting it will sell close to PS4, no chance. If it can't even beat PS4 this year, Switch has no chance coming close to life-time sales of PS4. Switch will probably peak this year, like 3ds peaked first year and wii second year, Nintendo consoles peaks very early because of no 3rd-party titles.

I expect Switch sales start to dwindle next year and if they don't release a Switch Mini soon without a station dock the sales will start to fizzle very quickly. Life-time sales will be between 60-70m and the biggest reason for this will be price. I don't believe Nintendo can hit that 99-149$ price point nintendo 3ds manage to do.



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Trumpstyle said:
CGI-Quality said:

I'll take off the mod coat for just a sec.

Let's look at it this way ~ Switch has breathed new life into this game. Decemeber's numbers are going to be MASSIVE for it. Period. Dot.

Realistically, 80 million is the bare minimum of final lifetime totals. Treat it like a handheld regarding sales (its docking feature is the icing). I predict that it will sell between 95 and 115 million, give or take. A bit behind the PS4, but definitely ahead of the 3DS. I want all of its doubters of 80+ million final unit totals to consider that this isn't the Wii. It shouldn't have that kind of hard drop off because the carrying weight of the Wii's particular audience are not the people jumping through hoops for Smash. These are core, dedicated fans of the series and many of them WILL buy a Switch for just this one game. The PS5/Xbox Next will have an impact, no doubt, but there's nothing currently suggesting that this thing will just taper off and crawl to 80 million and the Switch has much more pulling power than the Wii, in my eyes.

2019 will be a better indicator of long term success. Just think about all of the variables to reach your final conclusions.

Yep, nope. You predicting it will sell close to PS4, no chance. If it can't even beat PS4 this year, Switch has no chance coming close to life-time sales of PS4. Switch will probably peak this year, like 3ds peaked first year and wii second year, Nintendo consoles peaks very early because of no 3rd-party titles.

I expect Switch sales start to dwindle next year and if they don't release a Switch Mini soon without a station dock the sales will start to fizzle very quickly. Life-time sales will be between 60-70m and the biggest reason for this will be price. I don't believe Nintendo can hit that 99-149$ price point nintendo 3ds manage to do.

So you expecting Switch sales will fail of a cliff after Holiday season!? :D 

We here had similar prediction last year in same time period. :)



KingofTrolls said:
So did PS4 won in units sold or no ?

Could be. Npd doesn't give figures since moths ago. 

Figures you read here are from Era. And they are not accurate. 



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