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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

chakkra on 14 December 2018
LGBTDBZBBQ said:
chakkra said:

Call me optimistic but I think that if they drop the price low enough ($250-350 for PS4/pro and $230-400 for X1S/X) both machines will be able to match this year's numbers.

Benji already said in era thread, a price drop isn't going to stop imminent YOY decrease for both consoles for the next year and Matt(npd) already said the thing about doom and gloom for hardware with an exception to Nintendo Switch. 

Well, I guess one of us is gonna be wrong.  Sadly, we won't know who until this time next year.



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LipeJJ on 14 December 2018
LGBTDBZBBQ said:

Things will get ugly next year for PS4 and XBX1 hardware. Switch on the other hand with Metroid Prime 4, Animal Crossing, NSMBUD, FE 3 Houses, Marvel UA3, Yoshi, and the biggest exclusive in this generation Mainline Pokemon Game plus rumored new hardware revision are going to make Switch explodes in the 3rd year.

If all these games plus new unnanounced ones hit next year, I think 25m shipped should be the floor, as crazy as that may sound. Curious to see what Nintendo's expectations/goals will be. I hope they talk about it on their next report.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

PAOerfulone on 14 December 2018
LipeJJ said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:

Things will get ugly next year for PS4 and XBX1 hardware. Switch on the other hand with Metroid Prime 4, Animal Crossing, NSMBUD, FE 3 Houses, Marvel UA3, Yoshi, and the biggest exclusive in this generation Mainline Pokemon Game plus rumored new hardware revision are going to make Switch explodes in the 3rd year.

If all these games plus new unnanounced ones hit next year, I think 25m shipped should be the floor, as crazy as that may sound. Curious to see what Nintendo's expectations/goals will be. I hope they talk about it on their next report.

If they do well enough this quarter, they may even raise their forecast for this fiscal year to 21-22 million. But, that's a very VERY big 'if'.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

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Is Hardware Getting TOO Powerful?

Older Threads:

PlayStation/Xbox/Switch: 2022 Edition

PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition!
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2017 vs. 2018
PlayStation 4: 2015 vs. 2016 vs. 2017

LipeJJ on 14 December 2018
PAOerfulone said:
LipeJJ said:

If all these games plus new unnanounced ones hit next year, I think 25m shipped should be the floor, as crazy as that may sound. Curious to see what Nintendo's expectations/goals will be. I hope they talk about it on their next report.

If they do well enough this quarter, they may even raise their forecast for this fiscal year to 21-22 million. But, that's a very VERY big 'if'.

Yeah, that may be possible (but I think it's unlikely), but I'm curious to see what they expect from next fiscal year. 



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Intrinsic on 14 December 2018
xMetroid said:
Intrinsic said:

Errrrr....... 

The PS4 has been trending down YOY by about 10% all year round. Its performance in november is still reflective of that. It managed like one r two months in the entire year so far better than last year. Thats called bucking the trend not setting a precedent. 

The NS has been trending upwards YOY all year. And from nintendo PR was aready expected to be way up this year. You can look at improvements all you want' but that is also expected of a console that is going into its second year (and yes, it had its own deals too) and it doesn't change that it still was the second best selling console.

Again..... the PS4 is 5yrs old.

And lets make this simple....

PS4 first november (2014) 841k

PS4 second november (2015) 1539k (85% YOY increase)

So the NS is tracking and doing what its expected to be doing. And nothing that is out of the ordinary for a good selling console. 

You do realize black friday is all about deals ? 

Switch was still 300$ but with a game while PS4 was 200$ with a game or something. It doens't take rocket science to know people will jump on the bigger deal. 

Not cause it's 5 years old that it won't perform on sale driven holidays. That 5 years handicap will hit once we have the december numbers, i'm sure Switch will be leading by a very comfortable margin. And again, PS4 is down YoY while having better first party this year, so yes, it's clearly getting old. I think it will take a moderate hit next year as i don't see them having other big system sellers like a Goty/Spiderman/Monster Hunter.

 

Also, Nintendo never had huge numbers during black friday, these Switch numbers are insane for them and blew out the best 3DS ones. So yes, this is a big achievement for the Switch.

So you are agreeing with me?



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Intrinsic on 14 December 2018

Wait..... what am I reading in this thread all f a sudden.

Is there a single person alive that thinks a console will keep selling better than it did the previous year for ever?

Some of you here are talking about PS4 being down YOY and also going to be down YOY like thats somehow a bad thing. Or is somehow abnormal.

The PS4 has ran its race. And its been a good one. Its one leg out the door already and its n track t be another 100M selling console from sony. What more do you guys want?

Heres a news flash. Next year the PS4 will sell less than it did this year. And the year after that even less. This is not because its having its ass handed to it by the NS..... its because its reached the end of its life. This same strange thing has happened to around 12 consoles over the past 4 or so generations. Shocking I know.



LipeJJ on 15 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
Wait..... what am I reading in this thread all f a sudden.

Is there a single person alive that thinks a console will keep selling better than it did the previous year for ever?

Some of you here are talking about PS4 being down YOY and also going to be down YOY like thats somehow a bad thing. Or is somehow abnormal.

The PS4 has ran its race. And its been a good one. Its one leg out the door already and its n track t be another 100M selling console from sony. What more do you guys want?

Heres a news flash. Next year the PS4 will sell less than it did this year. And the year after that even less. This is not because its having its ass handed to it by the NS..... its because its reached the end of its life. This same strange thing has happened to around 12 consoles over the past 4 or so generations. Shocking I know.

That's probably because at the beginning of the year there were discussions on whether PS4 would be up or down this year, and lots of people believed it could be up and defended it using the argument that this year would have a much better first party and exclusive line up. 



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

PAOerfulone on 15 December 2018
LipeJJ said:
PAOerfulone said:

If they do well enough this quarter, they may even raise their forecast for this fiscal year to 21-22 million. But, that's a very VERY big 'if'.

Yeah, that may be possible (but I think it's unlikely), but I'm curious to see what they expect from next fiscal year. 

Oh, if all the games they have listed for 2019 stay in 2019 and they're evenly spread out through the year and if we get a hardware revision or a price cut to lower the Switch to at least $250, then I'm very confident that 2019 will be the Switch's peak year, though I'm not too sure about 25 million shipped.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

Current Thread

Is Hardware Getting TOO Powerful?

Older Threads:

PlayStation/Xbox/Switch: 2022 Edition

PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition!
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2017 vs. 2018
PlayStation 4: 2015 vs. 2016 vs. 2017

LGBTDBZBBQ on 15 December 2018

Switch is going to win in Japan(XD) and the US at the end.



Kerotan on 15 December 2018
LGBTDBZBBQ said:
chakkra said:

Call me optimistic but I think that if they drop the price low enough ($250-350 for PS4/pro and $230-400 for X1S/X) both machines will be able to match this year's numbers.

Benji already said in era thread, a price drop isn't going to stop imminent YOY decrease for both consoles for the next year and Matt(npd) already said the thing about doom and gloom for hardware with an exception to Nintendo Switch. 

A YOY decrease in your 6th year is not considered ugl. Surely the ps4 will finally get it's long over due permanent price cut next year and sales will remain decent not ugly. There won't be a software drought either.