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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: Switch on track to sell only 8 million systems this Fiscal Year

tripenfall on 20 August 2018

He's never heard of Pokemon and Super Smash Bros?



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The_Liquid_Laser on 20 August 2018
Jumpin said:
Metroid33slayer said:
It's like he doesn't realise that Q1 is the weakest quarter, does he really think that all quarters sell the same and that Q3 will not have a massive increase? He must know that, he is just playing dumb to troll people.To what end.

More likely he’s just an idiot who’s only got a fake job because someone in his family is valuable to the company. I work in finance, I’ve come across a number of people with BS job positions to hide the fact that their job is essentially to kiss ass and wear a suit... an especially popular profession in New York (which I believe is his stomping ground).

According to wikipedia he has a MBA and two law degrees.  The funny thing about calling him an "analyst" is that an analyst would want to understand the data.  On the other hand a lawyer would want to spin the data.  I think he actually is doing his job, but "analyst" is not what he should be called.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Pachter



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HintHRO on 20 August 2018

Why is this guy still a thing? Can't remember the last time he was right about something.



DonFerrari on 20 August 2018
JRPGfan said:
8m more from now until end of december?

Will do more than this, but this is much more sensible than Patcher prediction chuckles.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

areason on 20 August 2018

How much did it sell till now?



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Azelover on 20 August 2018

Maybe he's trying to lower the expectations?

I think 20 million ain't gonna happen with the current lineup. But 8 million is a little absurd. Even if it does happen, it's still not right to predict that now.



DonFerrari on 20 August 2018
Jumpin said:
Metroid33slayer said:
It's like he doesn't realise that Q1 is the weakest quarter, does he really think that all quarters sell the same and that Q3 will not have a massive increase? He must know that, he is just playing dumb to troll people.To what end.

More likely he’s just an idiot who’s only got a fake job because someone in his family is valuable to the company. I work in finance, I’ve come across a number of people with BS job positions to hide the fact that their job is essentially to kiss ass and wear a suit... an especially popular profession in New York (which I believe is his stomping ground).

Unfortunately what you said is very true. Be it either because there is someone influential on the company that protects that person or just because that person have a contact to a very profitable account.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 20 August 2018
Mnementh said:
setsunatenshi said:

The fact is Nintendo Labo bombed and many analysts were attributing the bullish expectations Nintendo set up for the fiscal year to that release. There is plenty of sense, and I agree, Nintendo will not hit their target estimates. Furthermore, without a price cut I think they will be not even close to hitting the expected sales figures. 

So I don't think it's just wild speculation on his part, but yeah people love to make mountains out of molehills when actually something pretty uncontroversial was said (and factual too). He's not saying Nintendo will only sell 8M, rather that they are on track to that figure based on the recent sales numbers and extrapolating based on that. Probably a more complete answer would be "Nintendo tracking to 8M, meaning it's very unlikely they will hit the 20M estimates they set out at the start" (don't remember if it was 20M, but it was somewhere around there).

First, I don't see Labo as a bomb, Nintendo sees sales in line with their expectations:

https://gonintendo.com/stories/311497-nintendo-labo-has-met-expectations-and-will-continue-to-be-supp

Now that can be some marketing BS, but I think many here who expected more saw Labo as some sort of Wii Sports, which it is certainly not. So, putting it on Labo is unjustified, it is pretty clear that Smash and Pokemon Let's Go are the titles that are intended to push sales.

Secondly, what he saying is no valid extrapolation. He is an analyst and knows well that Q3 will be much bigger than the other quarters. Linear extrapolation from Q1 is wrong - and Pachter knows that. So his 8M figure is just BS to gain attention (which worked). It is in no way correct extrapolation.

Where is one way to say it seems unlikely for Nintendo to hit 20M, and another to frame it with this ridiculous 8M number.

This source would have been good on the threads that discussed Labo being a flop or anything much below expectations.

It still didn't do big numbers, but if it's doing close to projection can't say it's a failure.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Alby_da_Wolf on 20 August 2018

Maybe he's confusing American sales with worldwide ones, I've seen it happen countless times and surely by many other people than him, usually from USA like him, anyway.



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setsunatenshi on 20 August 2018
Mnementh said:
setsunatenshi said:

The fact is Nintendo Labo bombed and many analysts were attributing the bullish expectations Nintendo set up for the fiscal year to that release. There is plenty of sense, and I agree, Nintendo will not hit their target estimates. Furthermore, without a price cut I think they will be not even close to hitting the expected sales figures. 

So I don't think it's just wild speculation on his part, but yeah people love to make mountains out of molehills when actually something pretty uncontroversial was said (and factual too). He's not saying Nintendo will only sell 8M, rather that they are on track to that figure based on the recent sales numbers and extrapolating based on that. Probably a more complete answer would be "Nintendo tracking to 8M, meaning it's very unlikely they will hit the 20M estimates they set out at the start" (don't remember if it was 20M, but it was somewhere around there).

First, I don't see Labo as a bomb, Nintendo sees sales in line with their expectations:

https://gonintendo.com/stories/311497-nintendo-labo-has-met-expectations-and-will-continue-to-be-supp

Now that can be some marketing BS, but I think many here who expected more saw Labo as some sort of Wii Sports, which it is certainly not. So, putting it on Labo is unjustified, it is pretty clear that Smash and Pokemon Let's Go are the titles that are intended to push sales.

Secondly, what he saying is no valid extrapolation. He is an analyst and knows well that Q3 will be much bigger than the other quarters. Linear extrapolation from Q1 is wrong - and Pachter knows that. So his 8M figure is just BS to gain attention (which worked). It is in no way correct extrapolation.

Where is one way to say it seems unlikely for Nintendo to hit 20M, and another to frame it with this ridiculous 8M number.

Of course it's said in a satirical tone, but it's to illustrate the point that the 20M target was beyond any sort of reasonable target unless you admit this Labo was something Nintendo were banking on spreading like wild fire. So yeah, in that sense it bombed hard. Then you look at the software Nintendo is releasing this year, so go ahead and tell me where exactly do you justify it selling better than last year? Smash!? A crappy pokemon remake from the gameboy era? Unless they are planning some significant price cut, then I'm not seeing it. They will be forced to cut those targets, but hey that's just my guess.

Maybe the recent piracy developments will cause a surge of sales though, that can somewhat mitigate the Labo debacle.