Quantcast
Panic Button about Switch’s future, next PlayStation/Xbox effect

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Panic Button about Switch’s future, next PlayStation/Xbox effect

Miyamotoo said:
jardesonbarbosa said:

Switch is their meal ticket, of course they will say that. But we all know it's not the truth. Switch is not really driving third parties crazy as it is and things will get worse in the near future. Let's just accept the fact that it's not powerful enough and that Nintendo's relationship with most publishers is not the best.

No we dont know that. How Switch keep selling good and install base is getting bigger, I think we will see more and more 3rd party ports (I dont talk only about new games).

We just came from an E3 where there was basically no third party Switch game announced, but some smartphone games and the usual Just Dance/FIFA/game with toys. Of course we will see more third party support, there are hundreds of PS360/Wii/smartphone games available to port and some japanese developers will move their teams from 3DS/Vita, but that's nothing like Panic Button is suggesting. Switch will always be its own separated thing, home of late gen ports, japanese niche titles and Just Dance, no matter how big the install base is.



Around the Network
jardesonbarbosa said:
Miyamotoo said:

No we dont know that. How Switch keep selling good and install base is getting bigger, I think we will see more and more 3rd party ports (I dont talk only about new games).

We just came from an E3 where there was basically no third party Switch game announced, but some smartphone games and the usual Just Dance/FIFA/game with toys. Of course we will see more third party support, there are hundreds of PS360/Wii/smartphone games available to port and some japanese developers will move their teams from 3DS/Vita, but that's nothing like Panic Button is suggesting. Switch will always be its own separated thing, home of late gen ports, japanese niche titles and Just Dance, no matter how big the install base is.

But Paladins, Fortnite, Dragon Ball FighterZ, Daemon X Machina, Fallout Shelter, My Friend Pedro, Trials Rising, Fifa18...are 3rd party games, and I am pretty sure later in year we will also have more 3rd party 2018. announcements same like we had them last year after E3 also. Thats my point, Switch will get more PS360/Wii/Vita/smartphone games but also more current gen ports. If you think that Panic Button specifically talk only about current gen AAA 3rd party games, you are wrong, nothing suggests that, I think they talk about general Switch support not just about current gen AAA 3rd party games.



Miyamotoo said:
jardesonbarbosa said:

We just came from an E3 where there was basically no third party Switch game announced, but some smartphone games and the usual Just Dance/FIFA/game with toys. Of course we will see more third party support, there are hundreds of PS360/Wii/smartphone games available to port and some japanese developers will move their teams from 3DS/Vita, but that's nothing like Panic Button is suggesting. Switch will always be its own separated thing, home of late gen ports, japanese niche titles and Just Dance, no matter how big the install base is.

But Paladins, Fortnite, Dragon Ball FighterZ, Daemon X Machina, Fallout Shelter, My Friend Pedro, Trials Rising, Fifa18...are 3rd party games, and I am pretty sure later in year we will also have more 3rd party 2018. announcements same like we had them last year after E3 also. Thats my point, Switch will get more PS360/Wii/Vita/smartphone games but also more current gen ports. If you think that Panic Button specifically talk only about current gen AAA 3rd party games, you are wrong, nothing suggests that, I think they talk about general Switch support not just about current gen AAA 3rd party games.

Dont bother with him, no matter what you say he will come up with a bunch of reasons why none of those games count.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

curl-6 said:

Did the DS stop selling when PS3 and 360 came out?

Did the 3DS stop selling when PS4/Xbone came out?

The Switch does not depend on AAA third party games or being graphically competitive drive sales, so PS5/Nextbox won't really affect it. The only thing that can derail the Switch now is if Nintendo themselves fail to maintain its momentum with price cuts, hardware revisions, and killer app software.

I wouldn't be so sure that PS5 and NextXobx won't affect sales.

From sales data we can see that Switch isn't really stealing costumers from it's competitors. So, the most logical conclusion seems to be that those who are buying a Switch are old PS4/XB1 users - who have been given enough time to enjoy their consoles and are open to something new.

Now, that something new is, so far, annuling the graphical and catalogue difference.
When XB2 and PS5 arrive, seeing as their fanbase remains loyal, what might just happen is that Switch's attrative concept is no longer news and most likely, won't be able to keep receiving ports.

What happens then?
My guess: It's potential is cut short because a) Switch won't have really entered the declined stage to make way for a new iteration; b) even if Switch Pro happens, it will split the userbase, making the console able to keep receiving ports, to small in (actual) userbase.

 

On topic:

It's great that Nintendo can get 3rd party games on Switch.
It's not so great when these ports aren't multiplats. And until that happens, XB1 and PS4 will always be the go to consoles for the major titles.
That might not do a lot of harm to Switch sales now - when everything is peachy -, but there's the risk that it will in the years to come.



DélioPT said:
curl-6 said:

Did the DS stop selling when PS3 and 360 came out?

Did the 3DS stop selling when PS4/Xbone came out?

The Switch does not depend on AAA third party games or being graphically competitive drive sales, so PS5/Nextbox won't really affect it. The only thing that can derail the Switch now is if Nintendo themselves fail to maintain its momentum with price cuts, hardware revisions, and killer app software.

I wouldn't be so sure that PS5 and NextXobx won't affect sales.

From sales data we can see that Switch isn't really stealing costumers from it's competitors. So, the most logical conclusion seems to be that those who are buying a Switch are old PS4/XB1 users - who have been given enough time to enjoy their consoles and are open to something new.

Now, that something new is, so far, annuling the graphical and catalogue difference.
When XB2 and PS5 arrive, seeing as their fanbase remains loyal, what might just happen is that Switch's attrative concept is no longer news and most likely, won't be able to keep receiving ports.

It goes both ways, data shows that Switch isnt hurting PS4/XBO but it also shows the success of PS4/XBO  and the lack of most AAA multiplats is not preventing Switch from doing well.

By the time PS5/XB4 arrive in 2020/2021, Switch will start to reach impulse buy territory with a price cut or two (sub-$199), some revisions that cater to specific audiences (Mini, TV, Pro) and have built up a large existing library (possible Nintendo Selects line) so it will easily be able to coexist with PS5/XB4 for a few years.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Around the Network
DélioPT said:
curl-6 said:

Did the DS stop selling when PS3 and 360 came out?

Did the 3DS stop selling when PS4/Xbone came out?

The Switch does not depend on AAA third party games or being graphically competitive drive sales, so PS5/Nextbox won't really affect it. The only thing that can derail the Switch now is if Nintendo themselves fail to maintain its momentum with price cuts, hardware revisions, and killer app software.

I wouldn't be so sure that PS5 and NextXobx won't affect sales.

From sales data we can see that Switch isn't really stealing costumers from it's competitors. So, the most logical conclusion seems to be that those who are buying a Switch are old PS4/XB1 users - who have been given enough time to enjoy their consoles and are open to something new.

Now, that something new is, so far, annuling the graphical and catalogue difference.
When XB2 and PS5 arrive, seeing as their fanbase remains loyal, what might just happen is that Switch's attrative concept is no longer news and most likely, won't be able to keep receiving ports.

What happens then?
My guess: It's potential is cut short because a) Switch won't have really entered the declined stage to make way for a new iteration; b) even if Switch Pro happens, it will split the userbase, making the console able to keep receiving ports, to small in (actual) userbase.

As zorg has pointed out, the sales tend to indicate that Switch is not directly competing with PS4 and Xbox One, and therefore wouldn't compete directly with PS5 and Nextbox either. Furthermore, Switch sales aren't being driven by AAA third party ports and it's barely getting any as it is, so it won't matter much if those stop.

Shiken said:
curl-6 said:

Did the DS stop selling when PS3 and 360 came out?

Did the 3DS stop selling when PS4/Xbone came out?

The Switch does not depend on AAA third party games or being graphically competitive drive sales, so PS5/Nextbox won't really affect it. The only thing that can derail the Switch now is if Nintendo themselves fail to maintain its momentum with price cuts, hardware revisions, and killer app software.

This is all true...if the Switch starts getting treated more like a handheld and not a console it will still do just fine.

 

However the idea of current gen console games on the go will die withe the release of PS5/next box unless we see a NEW Switch that will still get those games at a scaled down level.

 

It is not a question of whether or not it can still do well.  It is a question of whether or not it can keep the very foundation of being a true hybrid console when the time comes for hardware upgrades.

It's not only portables that have continued selling after stronger competitors arrived. SNES didn't stop selling when PS1/Saturn released, PS1 didn't stop selling when the Dreamcast released, PS2 didn't stop selling when the 360 came out.

Switch already isn't getting many current gen AAA games. It doesn't have COD, GTA, Far Cry, Assassin's Creed, it's not getting Cyberpunk 2077 or Red Dead. And yet it's still selling okay, because AAA third party games are not its selling point.



zorg1000 said:
DélioPT said:

I wouldn't be so sure that PS5 and NextXobx won't affect sales.

From sales data we can see that Switch isn't really stealing costumers from it's competitors. So, the most logical conclusion seems to be that those who are buying a Switch are old PS4/XB1 users - who have been given enough time to enjoy their consoles and are open to something new.

Now, that something new is, so far, annuling the graphical and catalogue difference.
When XB2 and PS5 arrive, seeing as their fanbase remains loyal, what might just happen is that Switch's attrative concept is no longer news and most likely, won't be able to keep receiving ports.

It goes both ways, data shows that Switch isnt hurting PS4/XBO but it also shows the success of PS4/XBO  and the lack of most AAA multiplats is not preventing Switch from doing well.

By the time PS5/XB4 arrive in 2020/2021, Switch will start to reach impulse buy territory with a price cut or two (sub-$199), some revisions that cater to specific audiences (Mini, TV, Pro) and have built up a large existing library (possible Nintendo Selects line) so it will easily be able to coexist with PS5/XB4 for a few years.

Agree, not just that when PS5/XB2 arives they will have $400+ price points while Switch will probably have around $200 price point with multiply revisions present on market, but Switch main point and biggest advantage over competition will still be present and that's of course full handheld play.



zorg1000 said:
DélioPT said:

 

It goes both ways, data shows that Switch isnt hurting PS4/XBO but it also shows the success of PS4/XBO  and the lack of most AAA multiplats is not preventing Switch from doing well.

By the time PS5/XB4 arrive in 2020/2021, Switch will start to reach impulse buy territory with a price cut or two (sub-$199), some revisions that cater to specific audiences (Mini, TV, Pro) and have built up a large existing library (possible Nintendo Selects line) so it will easily be able to coexist with PS5/XB4 for a few years.

It's not preventing, so far.
If switch's market keeps beeing PS4 and XB1 users, then that market will dry up sooner rather than later, because it isn't renewing itself - again, so far.

2020/2021 will be a completely different story.
The 199$ price tag, or lower, doesn't carry the same wait it did before; When consumers adopted PS4 and XB1 with a price tag starting at 400$, the way they did (surprising even developers), that showed that consumers don't see price as a big factor anymore. As long as marketing works and promises are made, they will pay the price - like others do for Apple products, for example.

Switch needs something more than rely on a concept and 1st party titles alone.
The console had an amazing 1st year, but if Nintendo wants to really do well and really change things structuraly, that alone won't cut it.

Personally, the only real structural changes i have seen was the change in target audience and Nintendo betting on online gaming, like never before.

If Nintendo will be able to coexist with PS5 and XB4 will probably be more because of those two consoles and what they will bring, than Nintendo's actions. But that's me.

curl-6 said:
DélioPT said:

 

As zorg has pointed out, the sales tend to indicate that Switch is not directly competing with PS4 and Xbox One, and therefore wouldn't compete directly with PS5 and Nextbox either. Furthermore, Switch sales aren't being driven by AAA third party ports and it's barely getting any as it is, so it won't matter much if those stop.


 

But they are competing! They just arrived at a time where there were enough PS4 and Xb1 users looking for something new.
Not to forget that Switch had a once in a lifetime launch: concept, return to roots Mario and Zelda, MK8 and Splatoon. All in the same year.

Nintendo has yet to show that they can remain strong in the years to come.
To me, one or two system sellers (Pokémon Go for Switch is still a maybe) won't be enough. Specially if they are both released towards the end of the year.

Two years from now we will know for sure how much Switch's library has increased in the system seller department. Then, we will see if Switch can fight not one. but two new consoles!

Miyamotoo said:
zorg1000 said:

 

Agree, not just that when PS5/XB2 arives they will have $400+ price points while Switch will probably have around $200 price point with multiply revisions present on market, but Switch main point and biggest advantage over competition will still be present and that's of course full handheld play.

First, the hybrid concept is selling but like any other system seller aspect of a console, it loses selling power over time. Even if just because there are two new consoles.

Second, as i wrote above, consumers didn't care that PS4 was 400$, that XB1 was more expensive (had to do more with it being bundled with something that gamers didn't care and had no alternative, plus other things).
If PS5 and XB4 is everything gamers wanted from next gen, you can bet a 200 Switch won't have the effect you think it will, specially when Switch isn't stealing costumers from MS and Sony.



Switch will have some third party support, especially from japanese developers. But the so called multi-plats, the latest AAA games are not gonna happen.

But i would like to think everyone knew that already.

Nem said:
Switch will have some third party support, especially from japanese developers. But the so called multi-plats, the latest AAA games are not gonna happen.

But i would like to think everyone knew that already.

Yep ive been saying this ever since the NX speculation days. Switch will be consolidating the support of 3DS, Wii U & Vita which gives it a shitload of small-meduim sized titles.

Things like indie games, Japanese games, kid/family games, last gen remasters, retro compilations, mobile conversions, free-to-play games, downgraded/late current gen games.

Expecting the big AAA games day and date with the other consoles was always niave.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.