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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

TheBlackNaruto said:
zorg1000 said:

Dude where have you been all week? Pokemon was shown and coming in Nov.

Also, Monster Hunter is a big system seller in Japan, it caused PS4 to be up like 250k YoY last quarter.

I have been out of town on vacation lol! And what!!! Are you serious!!! Don't tease my heart like that man!!!! Now I have to go see it!!!! Yes!!!! And you are correct MHW did give the PS4 a nice boost in Japan I was wrong there. But I would not say it was a MAJOR release like GoW was.

LipeJJ said:

Sure, I don't mind sharing.

Well, there are many reasons why I believe this will be the case: for starters, Sony's line up for the first half of the year was amazing (and will continue to be in the second half) with heavy hitters and exclusives like Monster Hunter World, God of War and Far Cry 5, while Switch's line up was very modest. Kirby being the biggest release of the first 6 months of the year really highlights this. Now, we all know Switch is going to get many heavy hitters on the second semester such as Smash Bros. and a Pokémon game, which might not be exactly the mainline game people expected, but still looks a lot like a traditional Pokémon game.

On top of that, Nintendo systems show a much bigger growth on the holiday season compared to PS, and last year Switch was no exception. And then we have the companies shipments forecasts. I know companies can undershoot/overshoot predictions, and I firmly believe Sony will surpass their forecast, but Nintendo is expecting 20m shipped this fiscal year, and I don't really believe Sony will overship their forecast by 4m at this rate. Also, judging by its performance and possible second semester line up, I don't have a reason to doubt Nintendo's forecast, especially when they have been spot on and sometimes even pessimistic lately.

Regardless, I think it will be close.

Very good points man! I can see why you would feel that way.

I was on vacation all last week out of town so I literally just found out about Pokemon today! So I am super hype about that and can't wait to go check out the trailer for it! So with that and Smash for the second half of the year they will sell gangbusters! But we can't count he PS4 out with Spider-man, BO4 marketing rights and RDR2 marketing rights either. Also you are correct Nintendo systems always show big growth during the Holiday season but mostly in December. So if Sony has another big Nov with the PS4 then it could offset that so that will be the thing to watch there.

I think Sony will definitely beat their shipment forecast while Nin meets theirs almost spot on. Like you I definitely think it will be very close. But feel the PS4 will edge it out ever so slightly thanks to the lead that they are currently building. But it is a healthy year for them both for sure! So I am excited!!!......Now to go get hype for Pokemon Switch!!!

Yeah, it's an amazing year sales wise all around. Even XB1 is having a good year for its standards. I hope things keep this way.

Btw, the Pokémon game that will launch this year is a spin-off-ish that looks like the traditional games, while they confirmed a 100% hardcore one will release later next year.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

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zorg1000 said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

Hmmmmm maybe I just got the wrong impression from the trailer. I will follow this game closely in the following months! Keeping my fingers crossed lol.

And MHW FAR exceeded expectations but it was not a "major "release imo. And it boosted Japan of course since it was a highly anticipated game for that market.! I am did and still am enjoying it! But it is not up there with GoW as "Major" not by a long shot. It sold 7.9 million across multiple platforms. GoW sold almost half of that in 3 days and will meet/surpass that on ONE platform....that is a MAJOR release imo.

 

It does have a more casual approach and some Pokemon Go features (most notably the catching mechanic) but for the most part it still plays like a traditional Pokemon title and was stated by the creators to be a mainline entry.

MHW did 7.5 million in just a little over 1 month, most of that is from PS4. God of War did 5 million in 1 month. They are both major titles.

GOW 5 million is sold through numbers, the other is shipped, plus MHW is more like 40 days.



quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

 

It does have a more casual approach and some Pokemon Go features (most notably the catching mechanic) but for the most part it still plays like a traditional Pokemon title and was stated by the creators to be a mainline entry.

MHW did 7.5 million in just a little over 1 month, most of that is from PS4. God of War did 5 million in 1 month. They are both major titles.

GOW 5 million is sold through numbers, the other is shipped, plus MHW is more like 40 days.

Regardless both are major titles which was my sole point.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Nintendo Switch will probably outsell the PS4 this year, so I say 2017 was the last year PS4 outsell Nintendo Switch.

Again, I think it is a bit of a nonsensical comparison to even make though; considering the two consoles are in different phases of each their respective life-cycles, it doesn't really provide much information on the console's trajectory (or relevant relative growth or health of the consoles) compared to Year-over-Year self comparisons or launched-aligned comparisons to other consoles.

And even then, I think PS4 and Nintendo Switch are differentiated enough that the real focus should be each companies own performance compared to their past platforms (such as: PS1/PS2/PS3/PSP/Vita (individually) vs. PS4 launch-aligned in HW/SW/Annual Profit/Etc.)

Is this topic really going to be brought up again when positions are reversed and PS5 begins selling and Nintendo Switch is much farther in its life?

Even in the context of concurrent software releases for each platform each year, I don't think the difference of missing or surpassing each company's own hardware projections by +/- 10% really effects anything that is already in game dev pipelines at this point.



0D0 said: 

I used to think that Nintendo was in a drought, but the thing is, most games Nintendo released this year were strong titles for all the people out there that haven't picked up Wii U. I'd say that Nintendo has a high quality line up this year and yet they couldn't stop PS4 in its, let's say, beginning of final stage.


The thing is, Nintendo will have already released most of its big franchises before 2020 (Pokemon, Smash, Zelda, Mario, MK). Furthermore, Nintendo usually has its peak early in console cycle. After that, Nintendo is quite hopeless. Although Switch is a handheld console and handhelds have always done very well, I don't believe Nintendo will grow more in the second half of 2019/first half of 2020 than it's growing this year.

Switch this year still didnt had strong titles, games like Bayonetta, Kirby, DKTF, Hyrule Warriors and Labo are mediocre in strenght and line up until April definitely wasn't strong (but it getting stronger from May), MHW and GoW that PS4 recived until now are actualy strong system seller games and far more stronger games than Switch games I mentioned, so its not rely strange that Switch didnt sell better than PS4 until now. But in second half of year and and especially in Q4 situation could be quite different, Switch yet need to start receiving really strong games this year, Smash Bros + Pokemon combination in Q4 will be killer combination, and there will be some other games like Fire Emblem or Fortnite.

Switch is not typical Nintendo console, Nintendo will keep releasing quality titles, 1st party, 2nd party, 3rd party and 2nd/3rd party exclusives, in 2020. and with every new bigger or quality release Switch is becoming more attractive console. Also its not just point about games only, Switch will have bundles, deals, price cuts (Switch will espacily selling great when it gets handheld price point around $200 because for plenty of handheld lowers current price point of Switch is too high, also later with revisions and lower price point plenty of people will start buying 2nd Switch), revisions...that will also effect on sales and Switch will contine to sell great even in 2020. and later. So saying that Nintendo after 2019. is hopeless dont make sense.



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Kyuu said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Right now it is weak.  In a couple of years it will be extremely good.

Switch's third party support will, at best, be decent. In 2-3 years, PS5 will be launched. A while prior to that, Sony will be distributing PS5 dev kits. Do I really have to explain what that means to the Switch? A system that cant even run fairly demanding PS4/X1 games?

Nintendo handhelds always have excellent third party support.  Since the Switch is a big leap in power compared to the 3DS, the third party games this time around are going to be extremely impressive on the Switch.

As for PS5, I am glad you mentioned that, because Sony is basically handing the whole market to the Switch with how they are handling the PS5.  If they release in 2020, then Switch has had a full three years head start on the PS5.  On top of that Sony consoles never have any good games for the first couple of years, which means Switch will not have any real serious competition until 2022.  Sony is basically handing all of gen 9 to Nintendo.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Kyuu said:

Switch's third party support will, at best, be decent. In 2-3 years, PS5 will be launched. A while prior to that, Sony will be distributing PS5 dev kits. Do I really have to explain what that means to the Switch? A system that cant even run fairly demanding PS4/X1 games?

Nintendo handhelds always have excellent third party support.  Since the Switch is a big leap in power compared to the 3DS, the third party games this time around are going to be extremely impressive on the Switch.

As for PS5, I am glad you mentioned that, because Sony is basically handing the whole market to the Switch with how they are handling the PS5.  If they release in 2020, then Switch has had a full three years head start on the PS5.  On top of that Sony consoles never have any good games for the first couple of years, which means Switch will not have any real serious competition until 2022.  Sony is basically handing all of gen 9 to Nintendo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHy7s-2UA0k



From what I've seen the Switch was keeping pace in weekly sales with the PS4 for a while and has started to drop away now, outside of Nintendo launching their own big games I don't see a great deal of third party support for the machine so far, at least nothing to write home about. I don't see the switch outselling this year, it's all heavily dependant on Nintendo's lineup of games I suppose and they at least seem to be supporting this far more than the WiiU.



Playstation gaming for 18 years this 2012


The_Liquid_Laser said:
Kyuu said:

Switch's third party support will, at best, be decent. In 2-3 years, PS5 will be launched. A while prior to that, Sony will be distributing PS5 dev kits. Do I really have to explain what that means to the Switch? A system that cant even run fairly demanding PS4/X1 games?

Nintendo handhelds always have excellent third party support.  Since the Switch is a big leap in power compared to the 3DS, the third party games this time around are going to be extremely impressive on the Switch.

As for PS5, I am glad you mentioned that, because Sony is basically handing the whole market to the Switch with how they are handling the PS5.  If they release in 2020, then Switch has had a full three years head start on the PS5.  On top of that Sony consoles never have any good games for the first couple of years, which means Switch will not have any real serious competition until 2022.  Sony is basically handing all of gen 9 to Nintendo.

While I do think Nintendo Switch's third party library will be great in the end, I think it is strange how slow publishers have been to react to the system's success. There should be more gen 7 ports by now at the very least. Also, even if they don't have any games ready to show, there should have been more announcements of support for the platform (especially with how many publishers announced projects and support for PS4/Xbone when the games were nowhere near ready).

I suppose smaller developers have really been benefiting from this developer lag, so I see it as beneficial in some ways in the end.

As for PS5, I am not sure what Sony can do to differentiate the PS5 from the PS4 enough to make it as successful as the PS4. This is the same issue Nintendo had with the DS to 3DS transition, while the predecessor broke records left and right, the successor just did more of the same slightly better and less people bought-in as these things were no longer fresh.

And the PS5 has issues of diminishing returns, not just to the layperson who struggles to see the difference between 720p and 1080p, but budgetary differences, how many developers are going to make games that they can't easily port to all the current systems?
Such games would have to be massive in budget to be of such fidelity that porting would be prohibitive, which each year fewer and fewer publishers can even afford to make such $200m+ budget games, so it really becomes less relevant since it will be such a small amount of games that won't be cross-gen.
Which is really why the Nintendo Switch will continue to get steady support after PS5 and Xbox4 launch (affirming your notion).

Also, it will have a large active install base that will probably still be growing, while PS5 and Xbox4 will be starting from scratch. And, Nintendo Switch has really no other competitor for handheld gaming, so it can take its sweet time as it keeps expanding its library and hardware SKUs.

Maybe Sony or Microsoft end up being innovative in other ways that lead to hardware growth next gen, but there isn't the same pent-up-market-demand to help them this time, like back in the 2011-2013 generation transition (even Ouya happened because of how much was pent-up), so I think it puts that much more pressure on PS5 and Xbox4 having to be something pretty radical that people just resonate with in droves.

I also think $399 is still the hardware MSRP both Sony and Microsoft want to aim for, which pushes the release date back if they are going for a more experimental design.

So yeah, I think Nintendo is in fairly comfortable position with the current trajectory of things as they continue to ramp up hardware and software this year and next year.



trent44 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Nintendo handhelds always have excellent third party support.  Since the Switch is a big leap in power compared to the 3DS, the third party games this time around are going to be extremely impressive on the Switch.

As for PS5, I am glad you mentioned that, because Sony is basically handing the whole market to the Switch with how they are handling the PS5.  If they release in 2020, then Switch has had a full three years head start on the PS5.  On top of that Sony consoles never have any good games for the first couple of years, which means Switch will not have any real serious competition until 2022.  Sony is basically handing all of gen 9 to Nintendo.

While I do think Nintendo Switch's third party library will be great in the end, I think it is strange how slow publishers have been to react to the system's success. There should be more gen 7 ports by now at the very least. Also, even if they don't have any games ready to show, there should have been more announcements of support for the platform (especially with how many publishers announced projects and support for PS4/Xbone when the games were nowhere near ready).

I suppose smaller developers have really been benefiting from this developer lag, so I see it as beneficial in some ways in the end.

As for PS5, I am not sure what Sony can do to differentiate the PS5 from the PS4 enough to make it as successful as the PS4. This is the same issue Nintendo had with the DS to 3DS transition, while the predecessor broke records left and right, the successor just did more of the same slightly better and less people bought-in as these things were no longer fresh.

And the PS5 has issues of diminishing returns, not just to the layperson who struggles to see the difference between 720p and 1080p, but budgetary differences, how many developers are going to make games that they can't easily port to all the current systems?
Such games would have to be massive in budget to be of such fidelity that porting would be prohibitive, which each year fewer and fewer publishers can even afford to make such $200m+ budget games, so it really becomes less relevant since it will be such a small amount of games that won't be cross-gen.
Which is really why the Nintendo Switch will continue to get steady support after PS5 and Xbox4 launch (affirming your notion).

Also, it will have a large active install base that will probably still be growing, while PS5 and Xbox4 will be starting from scratch. And, Nintendo Switch has really no other competitor for handheld gaming, so it can take its sweet time as it keeps expanding its library and hardware SKUs.

Maybe Sony or Microsoft end up being innovative in other ways that lead to hardware growth next gen, but there isn't the same pent-up-market-demand to help them this time, like back in the 2011-2013 generation transition (even Ouya happened because of how much was pent-up), so I think it puts that much more pressure on PS5 and Xbox4 having to be something pretty radical that people just resonate with in droves.

I also think $399 is still the hardware MSRP both Sony and Microsoft want to aim for, which pushes the release date back if they are going for a more experimental design.

So yeah, I think Nintendo is in fairly comfortable position with the current trajectory of things as they continue to ramp up hardware and software this year and next year.

Referring to bold, there seems to be different trailer/announcement standards for Sony and Nintendo.  Remember most of the launch Switch games we didn't know about until January 2017.  And then at E3 they mostly focused on games coming out during the second half of 2017.  Nintendo holds their cards very close to the chest.  On the other hand Sony announces things years ahead of time.  How long ago was Spider-Man first announced?  I can't remember it was so long ago.  And that is for a game that is actually releasing on track.  Games like The Last Guardian get released many, many years after they are announced.

Third parties seem to follow the standard of the console maker.  Square Enix announced Octopath Traveler about a year ago and it's coming out this July.  Final Fantasy 7 Remake was announced in 2015 and who knows when it's coming out?  In general, games on the Switch get announced shortly before release while PS4 games get announced far, far ahead of time.

As for the PS5, yeah Sony is really screwed on that one.  They need to strike a balance between console price, development costs, and still being powerful enough to look far better than the PS4 and Switch.  They could release in 2019, but then the PS5 will only be slightly better than XBox1X and the gaming media will ridicule them.  Or they could wait all the way until 2020/2021, but then they give Switch a huge 3/4 year head start over them.  Personally I think it is better for them to release early (even this year if possible).  It would be better to get ridiculed and still have a fighting chance against the Switch.  If they wait a long time, they may find most of their customers have permanently floated over to Nintendo.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 06 June 2018