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In progress NPD predicting tool

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Bofferbrauer2 said:
It is pretty clear that Switch conquered the US by now. PS4 doesn't even get close anymore. Though that could still change with a pricecut from Sony - although Nintendo can do the exact same, and probably will sometime this year. I mean, a console without a pricecut during it's first 3 years would be something radically new.

Conquered the US? Quite an odd choice of words when comparing monthly sales of a 2 year old console to a 5 year console that is still $299. Let me know when the Switch has passed the PS4's LTD, then we can talk about conquered.



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thismeintiel said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
It is pretty clear that Switch conquered the US by now. PS4 doesn't even get close anymore. Though that could still change with a pricecut from Sony - although Nintendo can do the exact same, and probably will sometime this year. I mean, a console without a pricecut during it's first 3 years would be something radically new.

Conquered the US? Quite an odd choice of words when comparing monthly sales of a 2 year old console to a 5 year console that is still $299. Let me know when the Switch has passed the PS4's LTD, then we can talk about conquered.

Good, see you in about 3-4 years then.

Switch sold over 1.4M in the US YTD but the PS4 less than 1M. While the PS4 sales have dropped, even in it's best year it couldn't have kept up with the Switch sales from this year. And the Switch is still at full price, so there's still much space for pricecuts to boost sales later on, ensuring that the Switch will have a long shelf life, or at least longer than many believe.

In other words, I'm pretty sure that the Switch will outsell the PS4's best years in the US during the next years, making the advantage melt down fast. How long exactly it will take depends on how well and long the PS4 will sell from here on out, but if the PS5 really has backwards compatibilty out of the box, there's not much reason anymore to buy the console (at least not a new one) after the PS5 is out. So I expect the PS4 sales will drop fast after the PS5 is out, much faster than the PS2 and PS3 did.



Rumor is the Last of Us 2 comes out in November. With that game and a price drop I can see Sony edging out Nintendo.



05/28/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 33 (+5) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 39 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb - 68 (+11) - 207.79$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 76 (+20) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 74 + 25 = 99 points (+20) ; XBO : 33 points (+11) ; NS : 165 + 86 = 251 points (+15)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 4 (+2) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 8 (+2) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 9 (-) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 54 (-6) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 77 (-4) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 78 (+1) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 87 (+8) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 195 + 170 = 365 points (+10) ; XBO : 47 + 24 + 23 + 14 = 108 points (-4) ; NS : 210 + 175 = 385 points (+10)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 25 (+6)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 59 (-22)
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 96 (+26)
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 106 (-6)

Out of Top 100 :

5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 186 (-21)

PS4 : 92 + 56 = 148 points (-12) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 150 + 48 = 198 points (+3)

Overall :

1 - NS : 475.8 points (+17.0) ; Month Average : 419.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 300.2 points (+6.0) ; Month Average : 280.4 points/day ; 0.67 (-)
3 - XBO : 62.4 points (+10.4) ; Month Average : 53.4 points/day ; 0.13 (-)



jason1637 said:
Rumor is the Last of Us 2 comes out in November. With that game and a price drop I can see Sony edging out Nintendo.

I'll hold my judgement on that until E3. If either Animal Crossing or Pokemon releases in November than I think Nintendo will win November even with a Sony pricecut that month.

Besides, there's no guarantee Nintendo doesn't also cut the pricetag around that time. Over 2 and a half years after release, they would already be pretty damn late for their first cut.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
jason1637 said:
Rumor is the Last of Us 2 comes out in November. With that game and a price drop I can see Sony edging out Nintendo.

I'll hold my judgement on that until E3. If either Animal Crossing or Pokemon releases in November than I think Nintendo will win November even with a Sony pricecut that month.

Besides, there's no guarantee Nintendo doesn't also cut the pricetag around that time. Over 2 and a half years after release, they would already be pretty damn late for their first cut.

You do have a point. I forgot about pokemon and animal crossing. Nintendo could also release their rumored Switch revamp console.



jason1637 said:
Rumor is the Last of Us 2 comes out in November. With that game and a price drop I can see Sony edging out Nintendo.

Suddenly you became  a sony fan ?  wow.



Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
jason1637 said:
Rumor is the Last of Us 2 comes out in November. With that game and a price drop I can see Sony edging out Nintendo.

Suddenly you became  a sony fan ?  wow.

I've always been a fan of PS IPs like GOW and LBP. But what does being a fan have to do with console sales?



jason1637 said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

Suddenly you became  a sony fan ?  wow.

I've always been a fan of PS IPs like GOW and LBP. But what does being a fan have to do with console sales?

I don't know. But I think you said that.

jason1637 said: 
Rumor is the Last of Us 2 comes out in November. With that game and a price drop I can see Sony edging out Nintendo.



jason1637 said:
Rumor is the Last of Us 2 comes out in November. With that game and a price drop I can see Sony edging out Nintendo.

After last year's numbers ... nah. Most of the potential market has probably bought a PS4 already for these games. That's not mentionning that Pokémon Sword/Shield is probably the flagship for Nintendo in November and they could also price drop the current model in case they announced a new one.



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