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Forums - Sales Discussion - November 2017 NPD Thread! PS4 > XBO > Switch

DonFerrari said:
KLAMarine said:

"Nintendo Defense Force... always at hand when someone doesnt praise Nintendo."

Downvoting is anonymous though. How are you aware of any affiliation or motive?

So you think it was Sony and MS fans downvoting every single not positive comment on the Adobe report and also upvoting all positve comments? Ok then.

Again, I have no idea. It's done anonymously. It could have been people who disagreed with the logic of the post but didn't care to comment.



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quickrick said:
ThisGuyFooks said:

I thought that when people talked about the Gap closing, they were refering to this:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/09/06/gap-close-roughly-200-stores-next-three-years/637784001/

LMAO switch will never get to close to ps4 numbers, 2 reasons, all third party games are on ps4, and thats what sell systems, the handheld market will continue to shrink, because of mobile. 

1. By your logic the home console market has also been shrinking and so PS4 should not be anywhere as successful as it is now. In 2010, roughly 4-5 years after Xbox 360, PS3, and Wii launched they sold a combined amount of 177 million units. In 2017, roughly 4-5 years since the Wii U, PS4, and Xbox One launched they sold a combined amount of 130 million units (since the year is not yet over I added a generous 8 million units to the 70 million units the PS4 has sold and 8 million to the 31 million units of the XONE sold 130 million; I am pretty sure sales in December will not add up to 16 million units). Yet PS4 is doing well, and home consoles, despite, much like portable consoles, are facing competition from mobile and PC gaming, have not vanished. The same goes for the portable market and Switch, just because it has shrunk does not mean that a player cannot do well. It certainly does not point to Switch becoming another Wii U or Gamecube as you seem to either be predicting.

2. The PS4 and XONE getting discounted to around $200 explains the sales boost for those systems. However, lets not throw around hyperbole that Switch did horribly (like you are trying to make it out to be in previous posts where you say it is not selling well). The Switch, as portable system at $300 (a price point where most portable cannot sell at) has pulled off numbers not too far from PS4 in the November after its first full year (in November of 2014 PS4 sold 831K). Assuming what you say about there being plenty of stock being true, the system still performed respectably at its price point. In addition, these numbers do not indicate another Wii U situation and are actually quite strong, in comparison the Wii U in November of 2013 (its first full November) sold 250K. If anything it shows that if Nintendo decreases pricing in the next few years (like Sony and MS did dramatically this year) the system has really high sales potential.

3. Switch is not completely devoid of third-party content and its portability has provided reason for consumers to purchase games (even if it is a lower quality port) and developers to bring games over (when feasible). The early success of the system will most likely drive more third-party releases. It is, however, true that the level of third-party support (particularly from larger Western publishers) will not come close to that of the XONE and PS4. That is not a huge issue, because Nintendo can provide software that are not available on the other platforms either (provided their software output can keep up like it did in 2017). Moreover, PS4 and XONE and PC gamers do not lock themselves into a single ecosystem, people can purchase multiple systems. Sony even stated that many of those that owned a Switch also owned a PS4. Just because the PS4 is going strong does not mean that the Switch will be weak (and the vice versa is also true);this particularly true for Switch with regards to PS4, XONE, and PC because the Switch offers portable gameplay that compliments the stationary gameplay of the aforementioned home consoles. 

4. I am not going to make predictions of the Switch's longterm success. I am not going to say that it will overtake PS4 (I doubt it will; though at the same time I do not think that means it will fail like the GC and Wii U either like you seem to be asserting in nearly every comment; the numbers themselves thus far indicate that it is reaching a much broader market than wither the Wii U or GC did). The milestones that the Switchought pass to indicate it is a solid performer (ie it has gone beyond the largely core Nintendo base that constituted Wii U and GC) is that it has to outsell Wii U by the first half of 2018 (ideally by the end of the fiscal year in March) and it has to surpass Gamecube (ideally being in the high 20 million or low 30 millions) by the end of 2018. December is also an important sales time for Nintendo, if the system fails to substantially increase sales then it is a clear indicator that there is an issue with momentum. Again this does not spell doom for Switch either nor does it indicate that it is wanning, but more likely it indicates that demand at $300 has decreased; an appropriate price cut and value bundles in such a situation can help regain momentum. Of course there are quite a few risks as well. For example, if momentum drops and Nintendo refuses to drop the price can reduce the sales potential of the system. Nintendo's software pipeline stalling creating large gaps in software releases in 2018 is another big risk (along with Nintendo creating software that does not appeal to the audience they are trying to capture; like they did on Wii U with Wii Sports HD compilation and Nintendo Land). However, assuming that Nintendo does continue with strong software releases and Switch either continues to sell as it has at $300 or Nintendo introduces a price cut then I can see the system doing extremely well. Even at this point, looking at the sales data up to now (including the respectable sales in November; which you have been trying to pass off as being disappointing), at the very least it does indicate that this is not a Wii U type situation with regards to sales (not even close actually as I elaborated further above).



nemo37 said:
quickrick said:

LMAO switch will never get to close to ps4 numbers, 2 reasons, all third party games are on ps4, and thats what sell systems, the handheld market will continue to shrink, because of mobile. 

1. By your logic the home console market has also been shrinking and so PS4 should not be anywhere as successful as it is now. In 2010, roughly 4-5 years after Xbox 360, PS3, and Wii launched they sold a combined amount of 177 million units. In 2017, roughly 4-5 years since the Wii U, PS4, and Xbox One launched they sold a combined amount of 130 million units (since the year is not yet over I added a generous 8 million units to the 70 million units the PS4 has sold and 8 million to the 31 million units of the XONE sold 130 million; I am pretty sure sales in December will not add up to 16 million units). Yet PS4 is doing well, and home consoles, despite, much like portable consoles, are facing competition from mobile and PC gaming, have not vanished. The same goes for the portable market and Switch, just because it has shrunk does not mean that a player cannot do well. It certainly does not point to Switch becoming another Wii U or Gamecube as you seem to either be predicting.

2. The PS4 and XONE getting discounted to around $200 explains the sales boost for those systems. However, lets not throw around hyperbole that Switch did horribly (like you are trying to make it out to be in previous posts where you say it is not selling well). The Switch, as portable system at $300 (a price point where most portable cannot sell at) has pulled off numbers not too far from PS4 in the November after its first full year (in November of 2014 PS4 sold 831K). Assuming what you say about there being plenty of stock being true, the system still performed respectably at its price point. In addition, these numbers do not indicate another Wii U situation and are actually quite strong, in comparison the Wii U in November of 2013 (its first full November) sold 250K. If anything it shows that if Nintendo decreases pricing in the next few years (like Sony and MS did dramatically this year) the system has really high sales potential.

3. Switch is not completely devoid of third-party content and its portability has provided reason for consumers to purchase games (even if it is a lower quality port) and developers to bring games over (when feasible). The early success of the system will most likely drive more third-party releases. It is, however, true that the level of third-party support (particularly from larger Western publishers) will not come close to that of the XONE and PS4. That is not a huge issue, because Nintendo can provide software that are not available on the other platforms either (provided their software output can keep up like it did in 2017). Moreover, PS4 and XONE and PC gamers do not lock themselves into a single ecosystem, people can purchase multiple systems. Sony even stated that many of those that owned a Switch also owned a PS4. Just because the PS4 is going strong does not mean that the Switch will be weak (and the vice versa is also true);this particularly true for Switch with regards to PS4, XONE, and PC because the Switch offers portable gameplay that compliments the stationary gameplay of the aforementioned home consoles. 

4. I am not going to make predictions of the Switch's longterm success. I am not going to say that it will overtake PS4 (I doubt it will; though at the same time I do not think that means it will fail like the GC and Wii U either like you seem to be asserting in nearly every comment; the numbers themselves thus far indicate that it is reaching a much broader market than wither the Wii U or GC did). The milestones that the Switchought pass to indicate it is a solid performer (ie it has gone beyond the largely core Nintendo base that constituted Wii U and GC) is that it has to outsell Wii U by the first half of 2018 (ideally by the end of the fiscal year in March) and it has to surpass Gamecube (ideally being in the high 20 million or low 30 millions) by the end of 2018. December is also an important sales time for Nintendo, if the system fails to substantially increase sales then it is a clear indicator that there is an issue with momentum. Again this does not spell doom for Switch either nor does it indicate that it is wanning, but more likely it indicates that demand at $300 has decreased; an appropriate price cut and value bundles in such a situation can help regain momentum. Of course there are quite a few risks as well. For example, if momentum drops and Nintendo refuses to drop the price can reduce the sales potential of the system. Nintendo's software pipeline stalling creating large gaps in software releases in 2018 is another big risk (along with Nintendo creating software that does not appeal to the audience they are trying to capture; like they did on Wii U with Wii Sports HD compilation and Nintendo Land). However, assuming that Nintendo does continue with strong software releases and Switch either continues to sell as it has at $300 or Nintendo introduces a price cut then I can see the system doing extremely well. Even at this point, looking at the sales data up to now (including the respectable sales in November; which you have been trying to pass off as being disappointing), at the very least it does indicate that this is not a Wii U type situation with regards to sales (not even close actually as I elaborated further above).

Wii doesn't count, because it's market wasn't based on the core gamer, it sold because of motion control, which was a fad, just like kenect, it was a sustainable market.

thirdparty games are not selling switches, and will probably never sale switches in a relevant anount, wake me when a thirdparty game with out mario can do a million switch. 

I never said switch will fail like wiiu, it will do 50-60 million ltd which is good but it won't touch or be near ps4.



Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
Acevil said:
This npd thread reminds of that time Xbox one beat PS4 in November in first November and people started hyperboling. Quiet funny the seeing the fanbase acting like the opposite from that day.

Right.

The most powerful console couldn't beat PS4.

Tell us..Did the most powerful console in November last year beat the XBOX One S? Did you hear of something called the PS4 Pro?? Or is that out of our memories now :)



Xbox 360 and Xbox One

Gamertag:  GamertagOz70

Does anyone know how the XBOX One X did compared to the PS4 Pro for the launch month just for comparison sake?



Xbox 360 and Xbox One

Gamertag:  GamertagOz70

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3sexty said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

Right.

The most powerful console couldn't beat PS4.

Tell us..Did the most powerful console in November last year beat the XBOX One S? Did you hear of something called the PS4 Pro?? Or is that out of our memories now :)

The PS4 didn't need a savior in the PS4 PRO, it sold what it sold and nobody was worried about it.

Not even Sony treated the PRO as a must have.



Dang, Switch is lower than I expected. Is stock still an issue in some places?



 

              

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Cloudman said:
Dang, Switch is lower than I expected. Is stock still an issue in some places?

Only Japan as far as i know!

In the US it is plenty available in most places.



3sexty said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

Right.

The most powerful console couldn't beat PS4.

Tell us..Did the most powerful console in November last year beat the XBOX One S? Did you hear of something called the PS4 Pro?? Or is that out of our memories now :)

PS4 + Pro > XBOX ONE S .      Nov 16

PS4 + Pro > XBOX ONE S+X .  Nov 17



ThisGuyFooks said:
3sexty said:

Tell us..Did the most powerful console in November last year beat the XBOX One S? Did you hear of something called the PS4 Pro?? Or is that out of our memories now :)

The PS4 didn't need a savior in the PS4 PRO, it sold what it sold and nobody was worried about it.

Not even Sony treated the PRO as a must have.

Saying ps4 did not need a saviour is a moot point, because why bother releasing it in that case.  The reality is these are both high end consoles targeting quite a specific audience who are prepared to pay top dollar for a console. Microsoft and I believe Sony even said so. So yeh a high end console for a niche market is hardly meant to be some kind of saviour. The reality though on the other hand is that I don't think Microsoft was expecting it to be any near as successful at launch as it turned out.  So I guess the expectations have changed now.



Xbox 360 and Xbox One

Gamertag:  GamertagOz70