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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Sales Ranking - Week 99



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The 3ds is catching up really quick



Those are some nice Switch sales it seems that it Will pass the Wii's first 10 month next next week you report



The switch is selling like damn hot cakes. Good for nintendo, but is still far away from wii, and PS4.



progstarmac said:
The switch is selling like damn hot cakes. Good for nintendo, but is still far away from wii, and PS4.

It just passed the PS4 in Week 42 lol. It's 500k ahead, and It's still holiday season. In the next 2 weeks, I would expect a 1 million lead, provided that the Switch's Week 44 is comparable to the PS4's. It's hard to say if it'll end up beating the PS4 by the end of its first year, but it would have to be selling over 300k weekly in order for that to happen iirc. That wouldn't be easy, as discluding holiday season the only time the Switch has pulled 300k in a week was Odyssey's launch week and Switch's first-week launch. But I don't know if that was heavily butchered by stock issues.



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progstarmac said:
The switch is selling like damn hot cakes. Good for nintendo, but is still far away from wii, and PS4.

~13m down..... 60.6m more to go.... if PS4 stopped selling.



RolStoppable said:
friendlyfamine said:

It just passed the PS4 in Week 42 lol. It's 500k ahead, and It's still holiday season. In the next 2 weeks, I would expect a 1 million lead, provided that the Switch's Week 44 is comparable to the PS4's. It's hard to say if it'll end up beating the PS4 by the end of its first year, but it would have to be selling over 300k weekly in order for that to happen iirc. That wouldn't be easy, as discluding holiday season the only time the Switch has pulled 300k in a week was Odyssey's launch week and Switch's first-week launch. But I don't know if that was heavily butchered by stock issues.

Switch would have to sell 300k weekly in the final eight weeks to maintain (read: no additional gains or losses) its lead after week 44, because the PS4 sold ~2.4m units in weeks 45-52. If Switch built up a lead of 1m through week 44, a weekly sales rate of 200k would be enough to get over the finish line with a lead of 200k over the PS4. That isn't a tall order.

It isn't exactly a tall order but my point is that it isn't exactly easy for it to beat the PS4's first year. I never said it wasn't possible, and sure my maths weren't completely accurate, but even if we decide to use a 200k rate from now even that is quite unusual for Switch sales. From the Switch's week 10 to 30 (20 weeks) it sold under 200k consistently except the one week of 21 which was Splatoon 2's launch, heavily carried by Japan. Although after that, discounting weeks 32, 33 and 34 it has been selling over 200k. So if it can keep that momentum for the remaining of the next few months it will beat the PS4, but we haven't got any titles for January and February that are looking to keep that 200k+ sales rate. Unless we assume the Switch will naturally sell itself for the titles it already has available, along with the fact that there were presumably "stock issues" which held the aforementioned weeks of 10-30 back, then I guess it may be fine. But again, it's really hard to say what will happen. Two weeks left in December to gain a more sizeable lead still.



RolStoppable said: 

Japan's first week of January is ~150k, so the first 200k+ week on a global basis is already in the bag.

Ah, yea. Just checked media create today, nice 130k and 140k respectively for the last two week figures I was longing for. I heard there were pretty big stock issues in Japan (there were weeks where the Switch was only selling 20k weekly in Japan), so if 70-100k is now a recurrent weekly figure for Japan, I think 200k weekly should be pretty free, considering that the USA is usually the best market for Nintendo by far with most consoles, and Europe, despite not being a dependable market, should pull off at least 40-50k every week. Considering the Switch is much bigger now than then (+20 million produced for 2018- don't know how much of that share goes to Japan), I guess we shouldn't be seeing 20k-30k weekly in Japan again. I guess games don't really matter as much I seem to be making them out to be as the first week of Jan had no new releases in Japan. But I shouldn't jump to conclusions too quickly. 



Looks like week 42 is updated



friendlyfamine said:
RolStoppable said:

Switch would have to sell 300k weekly in the final eight weeks to maintain (read: no additional gains or losses) its lead after week 44, because the PS4 sold ~2.4m units in weeks 45-52. If Switch built up a lead of 1m through week 44, a weekly sales rate of 200k would be enough to get over the finish line with a lead of 200k over the PS4. That isn't a tall order.

It isn't exactly a tall order but my point is that it isn't exactly easy for it to beat the PS4's first year. I never said it wasn't possible, and sure my maths weren't completely accurate, but even if we decide to use a 200k rate from now even that is quite unusual for Switch sales. From the Switch's week 10 to 30 (20 weeks) it sold under 200k consistently except the one week of 21 which was Splatoon 2's launch, heavily carried by Japan. Although after that, discounting weeks 32, 33 and 34 it has been selling over 200k. So if it can keep that momentum for the remaining of the next few months it will beat the PS4, but we haven't got any titles for January and February that are looking to keep that 200k+ sales rate. Unless we assume the Switch will naturally sell itself for the titles it already has available, along with the fact that there were presumably "stock issues" which held the aforementioned weeks of 10-30 back, then I guess it may be fine. But again, it's really hard to say what will happen. Two weeks left in December to gain a more sizeable lead still.

The weeks which Nintendo had production issues and planned to sell only 10 millions in a year.. Production and demand is higher now I don't think the Switch will fall under 200k soon. The worst period is January with no big titles but it's usually a pretty solid month overall. February we have Bayonetta 1+2 so we will be fine.

 

Kicking off next FY with Kirby will be great.