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Nintendo's install base shrunk from 250 million in Gen 7 to ~80 million in Gen 8

Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo's install base shrunk from 250 million in Gen 7 to ~80 million in Gen 8

GoldenHand80 said:

What worries me is that Nintendo Switch has already shown its peak performance with Zelda. We all know that every year developers tend to push their games to the limits to utilize the full potential of hardware. PS4 and XB1 hardware still got a lot to offer for developers. Unfortunately, this isn't the case with the Nintendo Switch and we're likely going to see third party developers rapidly abandoning this platform. As a result, the sales of Nintendo Switch are likely to decline in its second year as it won't have a diverse library of games such as the ones on PS4 and XB1. In other words, I'm expecting the Nintendo Switch to have a similar fate to that of the Wii U.

So a Wii U game is peak performance for Switch?  And because of that, 3rd parties will abandon the console?  And because of that, people will stop buying a Switch?



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SpokenTruth said:
GoldenHand80 said:

What worries me is that Nintendo Switch has already shown its peak performance with Zelda. We all know that every year developers tend to push their games to the limits to utilize the full potential of hardware. PS4 and XB1 hardware still got a lot to offer for developers. Unfortunately, this isn't the case with the Nintendo Switch and we're likely going to see third party developers rapidly abandoning this platform. As a result, the sales of Nintendo Switch are likely to decline in its second year as it won't have a diverse library of games such as the ones on PS4 and XB1. In other words, I'm expecting the Nintendo Switch to have a similar fate to that of the Wii U.

So a Wii U game is peak performance for Switch?  And because of that, 3rd parties will abandon the console?  And because of that, people will stop buying a Switch?

He really had me convinced until you rephrased the statement like that. 

Now it just sounds batshit crazy. 

But in all seriousness, 3rd parties will have to do more than just mobile ports of their games if they want to gain any sort of traction within the Switch ecosystem. $50 Bomberman ports aren't quite going to cut it and I'm quite sure most developers are well aware of this. 

I have my suspicions that games E distributed via the Nintendo Store may be the best bet for 3rd parties unless they develop something clever specifically for the Switch that takes advantage of what the platform has to offer in a way that can actually compete with Nintendo's own offerings. 



SpokenTruth said:
GoldenHand80 said:

What worries me is that Nintendo Switch has already shown its peak performance with Zelda. We all know that every year developers tend to push their games to the limits to utilize the full potential of hardware. PS4 and XB1 hardware still got a lot to offer for developers. Unfortunately, this isn't the case with the Nintendo Switch and we're likely going to see third party developers rapidly abandoning this platform. As a result, the sales of Nintendo Switch are likely to decline in its second year as it won't have a diverse library of games such as the ones on PS4 and XB1. In other words, I'm expecting the Nintendo Switch to have a similar fate to that of the Wii U.

So a Wii U game is peak performance for Switch?  And because of that, 3rd parties will abandon the console?  And because of that, people will stop buying a Switch?

Of course it's shown its peak performance with a wii U game with a lot of frame rate dips even with patch 1.11. So really don't expect to see any leaps in performance to 1080p/60fps or even 1080p at constant 30 fps in any of the next major installments. Games are now stepping up into 4k resolution and 1080p/60fps on the other consoles. So yeah you're likely to see Switch library diminishing to 1st part games only exactly like what happened to the Wii U simply because it has way too little to offer , in terms of performance, to developers compared to other consoles in the market.

If it struggles with a game like the one shown below with dumped down graphics then really don't expect much from the switch, performance wise, in the following years.

 

The Switch is still in its first year and this is where most of the consoles are sold to the Nintendo die hard fan base so it is difficult to say it's a success from now. The next 2 - 3 year is where we're going to know if it is a success or otherwise. The easy thing to predict is that without a good 3rd party support for the console , which I suspect that it's going to be the case with the Switch, then it will likely end up being a handheld Wii U.



Wii was a fluke. Get over it already.



GoldenHand80 said:
SpokenTruth said:

So a Wii U game is peak performance for Switch?  And because of that, 3rd parties will abandon the console?  And because of that, people will stop buying a Switch?

Of course it's shown its peak performance with a wii U game with a lot of frame rate dips even with patch 1.11. So really don't expect to see any leaps in performance to 1080p/60fps or even 1080p at constant 30 fps in any of the next major installments. Games are now stepping up into 4k resolution and 1080p/60fps on the other consoles. So yeah you're likely to see Switch library diminishing to 1st part games only exactly like what happened to the Wii U simply because it has way too little to offer , in terms of performance, to developers compared to other consoles in the market.

If it struggles with a game like the one shown below with dumped down graphics then really don't expect much from the switch, performance wise, in the following years.

 

The Switch is still in its first year and this is where most of the consoles are sold to the Nintendo die hard fan base so it is difficult to say it's a success from now. The next 2 - 3 year is where we're going to know if it is a success or otherwise. The easy thing to predict is that without a good 3rd party support for the console , which I suspect that it's going to be the case with the Switch, then it will likely end up being a handheld Wii U.

Pack it up boys.  Switch peaked with game 1 and now it's going to flop because of it.

Nevermind that better tools are always being developed.
Nevermind that develoers gain experience with each new game they develop for a console.
Nevermind that BotW was originally designed for a PowerPC architecture and is ported to ARM architecture on Switch.
Nevermind that the logic of claiming BotW is peak and then supporting that statement with Dragon Quest Heroes 2 is odd.



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PS3 had a horrid start and that managed to go pass 80 mil. No reason for Switch to do the same, especially if they can market it later as more of a portable or make a straight up portable SKU.

All these companies have declined, big deal. Sure Ninty's might look worse but they also feel from higher.



oniyide said:
PS3 had a horrid start and that managed to go pass 80 mil. No reason for Switch to do the same, especially if they can market it later as more of a portable or make a straight up portable SKU.

All these companies have declined, big deal. Sure Ninty's might look worse but they also feel from higher.

Yes that is very true the PS3 had an awful start because it was quite literally sandwiched by developers, from one side, who were not interested whatsoever in dealing with the unusual CBE implemented in the PS3 and infuriated fans, from the other side, who did not like the price ($500 - $600) and the lack of games. It took some real hard work to bring the PS3 back to competition including painful price cuts, heavy investment in new IPs and indie games. Sony seems to have learnt a painful lesson from the PS3 experience which is translated now to the huge success of the PS4 plus an element of luck because of MS XB1 screw ups. 

I'm not against Nintendo or any company nor I'm blindly defending any of those video game companies like some of the fan kids here and there. I'm simply saying that with its gimmicks that will wear off rapidly coupled with its sluggish performance even in its launch game, the future of the Nintendo Switch seems quite alarming. Nintendo isn't investing enough in hardware performance, an attractive component to both developers and consumers. So what I'm predicting is that third party developers will abandon it quite rapidly because of its under-performance when compared to other consoles in the market and also I'm predicting that the lifespan of the Nintendo switch will be quite short. Sale figures will never reach the Wii galactical numbers nor it's going to be as bad as the wii U, maybe slightly above the wii U. 

thanks 



GoldenHand80 said:

What worries me is that Nintendo Switch has already shown its peak performance with Zelda. We all know that every year developers tend to push their games to the limits to utilize the full potential of hardware. PS4 and XB1 hardware still got a lot to offer for developers. Unfortunately, this isn't the case with the Nintendo Switch and we're likely going to see third party developers rapidly abandoning this platform. As a result, the sales of Nintendo Switch are likely to decline in its second year as it won't have a diverse library of games such as the ones on PS4 and XB1. In other words, I'm expecting the Nintendo Switch to have a similar fate to that of the Wii U.

You might have had a point there if you were talking about game quality because topping Breath of the Wild is a very tall order indeed. Yes, the Switch's first game might also be its highest rated but I have no doubt Nintendo will deliver other top notch games that will be critically aclaimed. 

Hardware performance doesn't matter at all, we already know the Switch is capable of supplying masterpieces of game design like BotW so it means any developper can do the same if they have the talent.



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TruckOSaurus said:
GoldenHand80 said:

What worries me is that Nintendo Switch has already shown its peak performance with Zelda. We all know that every year developers tend to push their games to the limits to utilize the full potential of hardware. PS4 and XB1 hardware still got a lot to offer for developers. Unfortunately, this isn't the case with the Nintendo Switch and we're likely going to see third party developers rapidly abandoning this platform. As a result, the sales of Nintendo Switch are likely to decline in its second year as it won't have a diverse library of games such as the ones on PS4 and XB1. In other words, I'm expecting the Nintendo Switch to have a similar fate to that of the Wii U.

You might have had a point there if you were talking about game quality because topping Breath of the Wild is a very tall order indeed. Yes, the Switch's first game might also be its highest rated but I have no doubt Nintendo will deliver other top notch games that will be critically aclaimed. 

Hardware performance doesn't matter at all, we already know the Switch is capable of supplying masterpieces of game design like BotW so it means any developper can do the same if they have the talent.

Making good games is what saved the PS3 and made it find its way back to competition. I really want Nintendo to deliver good games and succeed, I know they can make excellent games but they cannot rely on 1st party games only. I hope they get more 3rd party support for the Switch because that is a very important element for the success of any console. I'm just worried that because of is under-performance when compared to PS4 and XB1 plus the considerable hardware differences between the Switch and the other consoles (PS4 and XB1 share very similar core components), 3rd party developers might overlook the Switch. I agree that hardware performance isn't the single most important factor here but at the same time it should not be restrictive for developers.

I said this on many occasions and I'm going to say it again, I hate to see one company dominating the market whether it's Microsoft, Nintendo or Sony. I want to see a healthy competition because that will definitely be for the benefit of the consumer.

Many thanks



Try harder.